COMMISSION FOR ASSISTANCE
TO A FREE CUBA
REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT
JUNE 2006

CONDOLEEZZA RICE
SECRETARY OF STATE
CHAIR

CARLOS GUTIERREZ
SECRETARY OF COMMERCE
CO-CHAIR

Courtesy of:
Dr Manuel Cereijo
La Nueva Cuba
July 7, 2006

TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY……………………………………………….... 5
INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………… 11
CHAPTER 1: HASTENING THE END OF THE CASTRO DICTATORSHIP:
TRANSITION NOT SUCCESSION
I. Introduction……………………………………………………….... 14
II. Determinations …………………………………………………..… 16
III. Empowering the Cuban People…………………………………..… 17
IV. Breaking the Regime’s Information Blockade……………………... 21
V. Undermining the Regime’s Succession Strategy…………………... 22
VI. Denying Revenue to the Castro Regime………………………….... 29
CHAPTER 2: HELPING CUBANS RESPOND TO CRITICAL
HUMANITARIAN AND SOCIAL NEEDS
I. Introduction………………………………………………………… 34
II. Water and Sanitation……………………………………………….. 36
III. Health-Care and Nutrition …………………………………………. 38
IV. Food Security ……………………………………………………… 42
V. Shelter …………………………………………………………….. 46
VI. Protection of the Most Vulnerable Populations………………….… 48
VII. Educational Systems……………………………………………..… 49
CHAPTER 3: HELPING CUBANS GET TO FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS
I. Introduction………………………………………………………… 52
II. Release of Political Prisoners………………………………………. 53
III. Eliminating Legal Obstacles to Freedom of Speech, Freedom of the Press and Freedom
of Political Association………………………... 55
IV. Preparing For Competitive Multi-Party Elections And Democratic
Process……………………………………………………………... 55
V. Support a Free and Independent Media……………………………..56
VI. Support For Free And Fair Election Administration………………. 57
VII. Support For Professional, Institutional Military…………………… 60
CHAPTER 4: HELPING CUBANS CREATE MARKET-BASED ECONOMIC
OPPORTUNITIES
I. Introduction………………………………………………………… 61
II. Macroeconomic Stability…………………………………………... 62
III. Integration with the International Trade and Financial System……. 64
IV. Encourage Small Business Development………………………….. 66
V. Ensuring Labor Rights are Respected……………………………… 67
VI. Property Rights and Confiscated Property…………………………. 68
VII. Agriculture…………………………………………………………. 69
VIII. Infrastructure……………………………………………………….. 70
IX. Issues for a Free Cuba……………………………………………… 75
CHAPTER 5: THE ROLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
I. Engaging the International Community in Helping Cubans Respond to Critical
Humanitarian and Social Needs…………………………… 77
II. Engaging the International Community in Helping Cubans Get to Free and Fair
Elections…………………………………………………... 79
III. Engaging the International Community in Helping Cubans Create Market-Based
Economic Opportunities……………………………. 80
CHAPTER 6: THE VITAL ROLE OF CUBANS ABROAD
I. Helping Cubans Respond to Humanitarian and Social Needs........... 83
II. Helping Cubans Get to Free and Fair Elections……………………. 84
III. Helping Cubans Create Market-Based Economic Opportunities….. 85
CHAPTER 7: PREPARING NOW TO SUPPORT THE TRANSITION
I. Essential Steps to Take Now……………………………………….. 88
II. Steps to Take Now to Prepare to Help Cubans Respond to Critical Humanitarian and
Social Needs……………………………………. 89
III. Steps to Take Now to Prepare to Help Cubans Get to Free and Fair
Elections……………………………………………………………. 91
IV. Steps to Take Now to Prepare to Help Cubans Create Market-Based Economic
Opportunities…………………………………………… 93
V. Additional Recommended Action………………………………….. 93

Since the publication of the 2004 Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba
(CAFC) report, there have been important changes both on and off the island that the
Commission has weighed in making this new set of recommendations. Today, we see in Cuba a more active civil society, one energized by a growing sense of what is possible. At the same time, there are clear signs the regime is using money provided by the Chavez government in Venezuela to reactivate its networks in the hemisphere to subvert democratic governments. The Castro regime’s international meddling is done at the expense of the needs of the Cuban people. There is a growing sense of frustration among ordinary Cubans with a dictatorship that asks them to sacrifice, but expends considerable resources in the far flung reaches of the hemisphere and beyond.

Cubans continue to be imprisoned for activities that Americans take for granted
each and every day: reading and viewing what they wish; accessing information from the outside world, including the Internet; meeting in their homes to discuss the future of their country; running a lending library; or conducting petition drives. Despite the savage campaign against them by the regime, the Cuban people are losing their fear and continue to risk life, limb, livelihood, and imprisonment in search of a better future for their families and their nation.

The Commission’s recommendations to hasten democratic change in Cuba reflect
recognition of the leadership and bravery of the Cuban people. They also reflect the
Commission’s view that the United States and other friends of democracy should
acknowledge and honor the courage of Cuban democracy activists by supporting their
efforts to recapture their sovereignty for their fellow Cubans.

Yet at the same time that we see hope and growth in Cuban civil society, Fidel Castro and his inner circle have begun a gradual but intrinsically unstable process of succession. The regime is unquestionably attempting to insulate itself from the consequences of Fidel Castro’s incapacitation, death, or ouster. The regime continues to harden its edges and is feverishly working to forestall any opportunity for a genuine
democratic transition on the island.

The current regime in Havana is working with like-minded governments, particularly Venezuela, to build a network of political and financial support designed to forestall any external pressure to change. This state of affairs highlights the urgency of working today to ensure that the Cuban transition is genuine and that the Castro regime’s succession strategy does not succeed.

It is against this back-drop that the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba again assembles and looks at the question of how to help the Cuban people hasten and ensure a genuine democratic transition on the island. This is a time for bold, decisive action and clarity of message. Recommendations to hasten the end of the Castro dictatorship include: measures to empower the Cuban people to prepare for change by strengthening support to civil society; breaking the regime’s information blockade; a diplomatic strategy to undermine the regime’s succession strategy by supporting the Cuban people’s right to determine their future; and measures to deny revenue to the Castro regime that is used to strengthen its repressive security apparatus and to bolster the regime against pressure for change.

The Castro regime is failing to address even the most basic humanitarian needs of the Cuban people. Chronic malnutrition, polluted drinking water, and untreated chronic diseases continue to affect a significant percentage of the Cuban people. Conditions will not improve as long as Fidel Castro remains in power.

With the end of the Castro regime, however, the Cuban Transition Government will
face daunting challenges as it begins to address the basic human needs of the Cuban people. The Cuban people will expect rapid and effective action by this new government. The U.S. Government stands ready to help the Cuban Transition Government begin to address the immediate water, sanitation, health, food, shelter and education needs of the Cuban people. Helping the Cuban Transition Government meet these basic needs is essential to a rapid and successful transition period, the establishment of the new government’s credibility, and timely democratic elections.

By providing assistance in these areas, the U.S. Government can help the Cuban
Transition Government guarantee political freedom, economic opportunity, and hold free and fair multiparty elections.

Cubans have the right to see their sovereign will expressed through free and fair,
multiparty elections. The transition to an open environment, free of intimidation and other impediments, and sufficiently in advance of elections to meet international standards, implies that a Cuban Transition Government will need certain types of assistance from the international community. The United States should be prepared to respond. U.S. preparations should be structured to provide assistance bilaterally but should also focus on building an international consensus for assistance focused around supporting the process of rebuilding democracy in Cuba.

A Cuban Transition Government cannot be expected to rectify, in a few months, the
consequences of decades of dictatorship. Accordingly, the U.S. should encourage the
Cuban Transition Government to focus on those steps that will allow the election of a truly democratic, representative government that can take on that historic challenge.
The principal purpose of any U.S. assistance should be to help Cubans create a stable, open environment where free and fair elections can take place. U.S. assistance should be offered to help Cubans overcome obstacles to democratic elections and move rapidly to create an environment conducive to free and fair
multiparty elections.

If requested by a new Cuban government, U.S. assistance could be made available to help in the release of political prisoners; eliminating obstacles to free speech, a free press, and freedom of association; preparing for competitive multi-party elections; in
establishing a free and fair election administration; and in preparing the Cuban military forces to adjust to an appropriate role in a democracy.

This second report to the President from the Commission for Assistance to a Free
Cuba continues and builds upon the recommendations implemented through the
Commission’s first report submitted in May 2004. This report contains seven chapters and a series of recommendations, consistent with U.S. law, designed to help Cubans secure real and lasting change in their country. It recommends that the United States be prepared to offer prioritized assistance to a Cuban transition government that moves rapidly to free and fair, multiparty elections.

This report broadly summarizes resources and expertise the U.S. Government could
make available, in accordance with U.S. law, should a Cuban Transition Government
committed to free and fair elections ask for our help. This report seeks to unify U.S.
Government efforts under a strategic goal to help manage and coordinate ongoing efforts to plan for Cuba’s transition. It also recognizes that the international community and Cubans abroad will have an important role to play in Cuba’s transition. This document represents the work of over 100 participants from seventeen federal departments and agencies over the course of several months.

As long as the regime abuses the people of Cuba our policy will remain firm. Implementing the Commission’s recommendations for hastening a transition has helped break the regime’s information blockade on Cubans and is denying resources that the regime would otherwise use to repress its citizens. This report’s recommendations for helping hasten the transition are centered on a substantial increase in our efforts, in concert with other nations, to empower Cubans to define a democratic future for their country.

In keeping with the first Commission report, this document sets forth specific
assistance and programs the United States can offer to help Cubans quickly recover their sovereignty through free and fair multiparty elections. This report was developed on the basis of U.S. law and we recommend that implementation be done with due regard for international law and treaty obligations, internationally recognized human rights, and democratic principles. It reflects the commitment we and the other nations of the Western Hemisphere made in the Inter-American Democratic Charter to the promotion and defense of democracy.

The prospective recommendations and proposals in this report are not prescriptions or dictates. They only become possible when the President determines that there is a transition government in place and they only remain possible if that government continues to work toward free and fair multiparty elections. In implementing this assistance, we will need to ensure that we are reinforcing a process of democratic change and not reinforcing anti-democratic regime elements.

The existence of the Commission and the recommendations in this report provide a
formal process within the United States government to support the freedom movement in Cuba today and to take actions now to develop appropriate plans to support a democratic transition tomorrow. The U.S. Government, at the highest levels, is engaged in this effort.

This is an ongoing process to accompany Cubans in their transition to freedom. We
will need to update and adapt our preparations to keep pace with Cubans the mselves. This will ensure that, when asked, we will be able to offer appropriate support that meets needs identified by Cubans.

The American people understand and support the aspirations of people all over the
world, including Cubans, to live in freedom. Americans have not only opened their hearts but also our shores to the Cuban people. We are confident that a free and prosperous Cuba will once again be a friend to the United States.

The Cuban dictatorship remains a danger, especially to its own people, even in its
twilight. It still seeks to frustrate democratic governance in the region and to actively
undermine United States interests. Cubans endure the grim reality of life in their country.

Living under a dictatorship means a daily struggle to satisfy needs and wants, with
immorality, and, above all, with hopelessness. Cubans need to know there is hope in freedom. Accordingly, we cannot falter or fail to support the Cuban people as they approach the opportunity for real change.

When the time comes, the generosity Americans have always extended to Cubans will surely be redoubled.

With the horizon marking the end of the long struggle against tyranny in Cuba approaching, the Commission’s fundamental premise is that Cubans themselves will define their own destiny. Only Cubans can chart a path to liberty, prosperity, and
reconciliation. It is they who will ensure that the dictatorship which advocated nuclear war against our nation will rapidly come to an end.

Cubans in Cuba, at great personal risk, are already talking about a democratic transition for their country. It is what Cubans say about the future of Cuba that truly matters. The civic opposition movement is creating momentum for democratic change in Cuba. With our offer of support, advice, and help to all who seek democratic change in Cuba, we hope to add to this momentum and to keep pace with the Cuban people as they press for democratic change.

Continued dictatorship will result in neither stability nor opportunity in Cuba. The world’s democracies can work together now to support the right of Cubans to define a democratic future for their country. Just as Cubans will face an inevitable opportunity for change, the international community will face a choice. Half measures and partial reforms by an unelected successor regime short of free and fair elections should not be rewarded with recognition or support from the free nations of the world.

As a community of free nations, we can intensify our efforts now to help Cubans who
support liberty, prosperity, and reconciliation. We hope this report will find resonance with the people of Cuba, the world’s democracies, and the people of the United States.

Together, we can reassure the Cuban people that they can count on democratic allies as they move to see their sovereign will expressed through free and fair, multiparty elections.

Selected recommendations include the following:

• Lista de Esbirros: Place the names of those credibly believed to be invo lved in
orchestrating human rights abuses in Cuba into the Abuse Case Evaluation
System (ACES) database that is currently maintained and managed by the
Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor at the State Department;

• Place the names of individuals involved in the 2003 and subsequent trials of
opposition activists, as well as those involved in orchestrating Actos de Repudio,
on the visa lookout database;

• Amend Presidential Proclamation 5377 to permit the denial of immigrant, as well
as non-immigrant visas, to officers and employees of the Government of Cuba
or the Communist Party of Cuba;

• Authorize denial of the right to adjust status to legal permanent alien to any
regime official when such an act would be detrimental to the interests of the
United States;

• Remove from the visa lookout database those officials that have quit the regime,
publicly advocated their commitment to and take concrete steps to demonstrate
their support for democratic change on the island, and who are otherwise not
believed to be ineligible for entry into the U.S.; and,

• Submit the names of officials indicted for the murder of the “Brothers-to-the-
Rescue” pilots to Interpol.

MAKING MIGRATION SAFE, ORDERLY, AND A FORCE FOR CHANGE IN
CUBA

The Cuban government has failed to honor its commitments under the September 9,
1994, Joint Communiqué and the May 2, 1995, Joint Statement, otherwise known as the “Migration Accords.” While the 1994 Joint Communiqué obligates Cuba to take measures to ens ure that migration is safe, legal, and orderly, the Cuban government continues to deny U.S. officials permission to monitor returned migrants outside of Havana; facilitate the departure of thousands of Cubans annually over the land borders into the U.S. via Mexico; deny exit permits to otherwise qualified Cuban citizens, making some people wait for years to emigrate; and flatly prohibit others from emigrating, including doctors and family members of government officials.

The regime has also enacted a series of other bureaucratic measures that impede the
U.S. Interests Section’s efforts to meet the U.S. commitments under the Agreement. As detailed in CAFC I, with these and other mechanisms, the Castro regime continues to manipulate migration flows to the United States. The regime does so to further its policies of generating additional hard currency and as a means to control its population — releasing pressure when necessary by permitting more exits. The regime further seeks to dampen the efforts of Cuban activists working for change by withholding exit permission to attend international conferences or receive awards.

Selected recommendations include:

In response to Cuba’s repeated and consistent efforts to impede safe, legal, and
orderly migration, we recommend a series of diplomatic efforts to notify the Castro regime of its failure to meet its obligations under the Migration Accords and protesting its efforts to interfere with and disrupt U.S. migration policy.

The policies of the Castro regime continue to debilitate the Cuban economy,
impoverish the Cuban people, and isolate Cuba from economic advances enjoyed by the rest of the Western Hemisphere. The regime ignores its obligations to its people and diverts its resources to maintain its grip on power, manage a succession of the regime, and destabilize democracies elsewhere in the Hemisphere. The more financially stressed the system is, the more difficult it will be for any leader who follows Fidel Castro to preside over a succession within the dictatorship The first report of the Commission recommended, and the President directed be implemented, a comprehensive set of measures to deny the Castro regime the revenues it needs to maintain its repressive security apparatus. By the regime’s own admission, these
measures — and continued enforcement actions — have sharply cut licensed and
unlicensed travel to the island each year since the implementation of the measures of the first report.

Limitations on travel, parcel deliveries and remittances have sharply curtailed the
regime’s manipulation of and profiteering from U.S. humanitarian policies. These
measures have been successful and should continue to be implemented.
In order to undermine the regime’s succession strategy, it is critical that the U.S.
Government maintain economic pressure on the regime to limit its ability to sustain itself and repress the Cuban people. Moreover, as we rapidly approach the transitional moment, the more economic pressure there is on the regime, the greater the likelihood there will be dramatic and successful change for the Cuban people.

Improved Enforcement

The Castro regime continues to seek new and additional ways to raise desperately
needed hard currency by encouraging and facilitating unlicensed cash flows and travel from the United States to Cuba. The profits from these transactions continue to be critical for the maintenance of the regime’s repressive security apparatus. The regime has facilitated the establishment of third-country travel and remittance companies whose primary purpose is to facilitate unlicensed transactions from the United States and to help individuals evade U.S. restrictions on such transactions. Similarly, in the last several years we have witnessed a surge in attempts to abuse existing license categories to engage in nonpermissible activities, such as tourism or other non-licensable visits.

Selected recommendations include:

• Establish an inter-agency Law Enforcement Task Force for better enforcement of U.S.
economic sanctions on the Castro regime; and

• Issue a directive to law enforcement agencies to pursue criminal investigations,
including prosecution, where possible and appropriate, of Cuban Assets Control
Regulation and other violations, especially for those found to have been involved in
organizing or facilitating unlicensed travel transactions with Cuba.
Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) Regulations:

• Prohibit individuals who wish to send remittances from going directly to third-country
institutions to send such remittances to Cuba and require instead that all remittances
be sent through licensed U.S. remittance forwarders. Eliminate the use of cash-card
services for licensed travel to Cuba;

• Expand the list of regime officials and agencies which are not permitted to receive
licensed remittances, and ensure that those included in the “Lista de Esbirros” do
not benefit from U.S. humanitarian policies by including them on the list of
Specially Designated Nationals (SDNs) and by barring SDNs from receiving
remittances;

• Implement new licensing criteria and reporting requirements for travel service
providers (TSPs) and Carrier Service Providers (CSPs), including a requirement that
TSPs and CSPs have an independent financial audit conducted annually; and

• Expand the use of Specially Designated Nationals (SDNs) to designate companies,
including front companies, engaged in efforts to promote the sale of Cuban goods or
unlicensed travel, remittances, and other transactions from the United States to
Cuba.
U.S. Department of Commerce Regulations:

• Revise temporary sojourn license (TSL) regulations and implementing guidelines to
ensure that licenses are not issued to maritime vessels, unless the vessel is solely
registered to transport goods and is engaged in the regular transport of bulk
commodities, or unless otherwise consistent with the foreign policy interests of the
United States;

• Revise regulations and implementing guidelines to deny export licenses, consistent
with U.S. law, for discretionary, cosmetic, or other medical equipment sales that
would be destined to be used in large-scale medical programs that cater to tourists
and foreign patients and not exclusively for the benefit and care of the Cuban
people;

• Develop effective monitoring and certification requirements for medical equipment
exports that ensure that these exports are used only for the use and benefit of the
Cuban people and not diverted to tourist or foreign care institutions;

• Ensure monitoring for medical equipment is undertaken for the life of the product to
ensure items exported are at intended end-use institutions. In the event that the
Cuban government does not permit on-site monitoring at certain institutions, future
exports will not be authorized to such locations;

• Reaffirm the U.S. Government’s export license policy of a strict general policy of
denial of Commerce export licenses, unless otherwise required by existing law; and

• Tighten regulations for the export of humanitarian items, other than agricultural or
medical commodities, to ensure that exports are consigned to entities that support
independent civil society and are not regime administered or controlled
organizations, such as the Cuban Council of Churches.

Target Regime Foreign Income and Assets Abroad

Following the reductions in regime revenue as a result of the first Commission
report, nearly half of the regimes’ current foreign income is now derived from nickel
exports. The revenue from these sales does not go to benefit the Cuban people, but is
diverted to maintain the regime’s repressive security apparatus and fund Castro’s
interventionist and destabilizing policies in other countries in the Hemisphere.

Moreover, some of this revenue is derived from assets illegally expropriated from U.S. citizens after Castro came to power. In addition, there is growing evidence of senior elements of the regime, engaging in efforts to hide personal financial assets abroad to guard against a severe disruption in their stations in the event of a democratic transition in Cuba. These assets, including property and bank accounts, rightfully belong to the Cuban people and should be tracked down and returned to Cuba for the benefit of a Free Cuba Government.

To hasten the end of the Castro regime by disrupting the regime’s sources of foreign
income and identifying regime assets abroad, we recommend the U.S. Government:

• Establish an inter-agency Cuban Nickel Targeting Task Force to reinvigorate the
existing nickel import certification and control regime and analogous cobalt import
control regime, consistent with our domestic and international obligations.

• Invigorate identification and targeting of regime offshore finances and assets and
initiate a diplomatic effort to engage international partners and organizations to
assist in developing information on and targeting regime assets abroad.

• Reconvene Cuban Assets Targeting Group with the task of identifying additional
ways to target and disrupt regime foreign income, including identification of the
assets of regime officials abroad, development of information on official corruption
and associated assets abroad.

Introduction

The Castro regime trumpets “the achievements of the Revolution” in meeting the
basic needs of the Cuban people. In truth, the entire system has been constructed for the sustenance of the regime, not to serve the Cuban people or to allow for development and economic growth. With the sudden withdrawal of massive Soviet subsidies in the early 1990’s, the regime found it almost impossible to maintain the mythology of the revolution’s achievements. Today, Cubans live with the consequences of the regime’s deliberate decision to sustain itself at the expense of its people: declining food stocks, increasing water shortages, crumbling medical infrastructure, the disappearance of basic medicines, and devastated housing stock. Although the regime continues to manipulate health and other statistics and restricts access to its medical facilities for people who might tell the real story of the revolution’s failure to meet the needs of the Cuban people, it is clear from independent sources that chronic malnutrition, polluted drinking water, and untreated chronic diseases affect a significant percentage of the Cuban population.

A Cuban Transition Government

1
will need to do what the current regime has never done: to put the needs of the people before the need to maintain absolute control. The Cuban Transition Government will face daunting challenges as it begins to address the basic human needs of the Cuban people. The Cuban people will expect rapid and effective action. In order to ensure the support of the public, the Cuban Transition Government should quickly identify priority actions and mobilize internal and external resources to sustain them. The Cuban Transition Government will want to avoid the onset of a complex human disaster that could be used as an excuse for those who might wish to restore the repressive regime in Cuba.

1
This Report uses the term “Cuban Transition Government” to refer to a Cuban
Government that is eligible to receive U.S. assistance under applicable U.S. law,
particularly the 1996 Cuban Liberty and Solidarity (LIBERTAD) Act. All
recommendations for potential future assistance in this paper are premised on the
assumption that the proposed action satisfies the requirements of applicable U.S. law.

There are numerous restrictions under U.S. law that affect assistance for, and transactions with, Cuba. In the event of a Cuban Transition Government, some such restrictions could be removed through executive branch action, but others may require legislative change.

Despite these various restrictions, certain assistance for Cuba may be provided in certain circumstances on the basis of laws that authorize assistance "notwithstanding any other provision of law" or on the basis of certain extraordinary general waiver authorities in the Foreign Assistance Act.

Another matter that the Cuban Transition Government will want to address is the
likelihood, under any scenario, that internal migration could become a problem. Large
numbers of impoverished rural residents could flood the cities where there is hope of
increased income, relief supplies, and Government services. Such a massive influx could result in large numbers of “internally-displaced” people, squatting on public land and erecting temporary shelters without adequate food, sanitation, health care or potable water.

Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and faith-based groups already play an
integral role in providing vital humanitarian assistance to rural populations and churches in Cuba. Their support to the Cuban people at the time of transition, where they have established relationships and information about the needs in these localities, will be essential to the success of the Cuban Transition Government’s efforts to complete a rapid and successful transition and hold free and fair multiparty elections.

The U.S. Government stands ready to help the Cuban Transition Government to
avert humanitarian emergency in Cuba by assisting the Government in addressing the
immediate water, sanitation, health, food, shelter, protection, and education needs of the Cuban people and working to bring other international partners into the process of
assistance. Assisting a Cuban Transition Government to meet these basic needs is
paramount for a stable transition period, new Government credibility, and timely elections.

Humanitarian assistance could include support in the following sectors: (1) water
and sanitation; (2) health systems and nutrition; (3) food security; (4) shelter and
settlements; (5) protection; and (6) education services. This collective humanitarian
support will help facilitate a Cuban- led democratic transition.

Sovereign governments are responsible for the welfare of their own citizens and for
others in their care (e.g., refugees, asylum seekers, migrants, etc.). U.S. Government
assistance and that of the international community should be provided to support, not
substitute for, the new Cuban Transition Government’s responsibility for its people. The
Transition Government should actively encourage and contribute available resources
(human and financial) for humanitarian relief activities to reduce human suffering and
prevent collapse.

Critical to a successful humanitarian response is the ability of all parties to quickly,
and preferably locally, access required resources such as fuel, logistics and communications systems. Equally important in the initial stages is U.S. Government and international support for local Cuban media efforts. The public should have access to information regarding the Cuban Transition Government’s humanitarian response efforts to ensure the public is aware, understands, and remains supportive of these activities.

Any U.S. Government assistance provided in response to requests by the Cuban
Transition Government would follow four principles:

(1) coordination with the Transition
Government, international organizations, bilateral donors, and international and existing Cuban assistance organizations;

(2) addressing the most critical humanitarian needs;

(3) identifying and prioritizing critical needs of vulnerable populations first (e.g., women,
children, elderly, disabled, displaced, chronically-ill and chronically-underserved
populations); and

(4) seeking to do no harm to individuals, households, the culture, the
economy, security, and the environment.

By providing assistance according to these principles, the U.S. Government can
help the Cuban Transition Government guarantee political freedom, economic opportunity and hold free and fair multiparty elections.

Water and Sanitation

Cuba today faces daunting water-supply and sanitation issues, including inoperative
sewage treatment plants. In the entire country, there are only five municipal wastewater plants, and only four percent of the sewage effluent has some degree of treatment. Water and sewer pipeline networks are in shambles. Havana’s population of over two million people uses a sewer system designed for a population of 600,000. Havana’s wastewater flow receives primary treatment only, and excess flow is discharged with minimal, if any, treatment.

Insufficient levels of wastewater treatment and the lack of sewer pipelines have
caused a degradation of the water quality. Runoff from heavily treated fields with
fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, as well as the discharge of untreated effluents from cities and industries such as sugar mills, sugar-by-products, food processing plants, and mining operations, also severely pollute surface and groundwater in Cuba.

As a result, only 62 percent of Cubans have reasonable access to disinfected water. Trash pickup is intermittently undertaken, which perpetuates the proliferation of mini-dumpsites in populated areas and near the perimeters of boarding schools and students/workers' camps.

There are also alarming difficulties in the hygienic cond itions of dumpsites and deficient handling and disposal of hazardous waste from hospitals, which creates a serious health risk.

In light of these conditions, the Cuban Transition Government may request U.S.
Government and other donor support to prevent and control the possible outbreak of
sanitation-related infectious diseases in rural and urban areas.

If requested, the U.S. Government could support efforts to ensure critical water and
sanitation services for the Cuban people. The U.S. Government can work with the Cuban Transition Government, international agencies, and other donors to:

(1) ensure access to adequate quantity and quality of potable water;

(2) develop accessible human-waste and wastewater disposal facilities;

(3) ensure access to garbage/solid-waste collection and
disposal facilities;

(4) assist local communities in the planning and implementation of
environmental- health interventions;

(5) help prevent sanitation-related disease; and

(6) offer assistance to local operations and management to improve the existing operation of sanitation facilities.

Should the Cuban Transition Government request U.S. assistance to address critical
water and sanitation needs, the U.S. Government could do the following:

• Help address the needs for potable water and sanitation in major urban and rural
populations;

• Provide chlorine or other water-treatment materials;

• Assist with water trucks to deliver water to needy communities;

• Provide technical assistance and other materials for the construction of new wells in
needy and vulnerable communities;

• Assist with garbage trucks to collect and dispose of garbage in major urban (or rural)
areas, and in vulnerable population centers;

• Provide soap, disinfectant, and cleaning materials to vulnerable groups;

• Support infectious disease surveillance, especially in areas identified to have an
increased risk of disease outbreaks; and

• Support hygiene-education programs in any sanitation-related interventions, and
provide technical assistance for mass-media public-information campaigns health
and sanitation.

Should the Cuban Transition Government request U.S. assistance once critical
needs have been addressed, the U.S. Government could provide the following assistance during the recovery phase:

• Help ensure sanitation facilities are operational, adequately staffed and functioning;

• Work with the Cuban Transition Government to ensure local communities are actively
involved in identifying and addressing their ongoing critical needs, and in
monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of existing sanitation interventions;
involve local and city governments to develop and implement environmental-health
education programs using interna tionally recognized models such as Community
Participation Problem-Solving: The Participatory Hygiene and Sanitation
Transformation (PHAST) Approach or the Assessing Community Excellence in
Environmental Health (PACE-EH) approach promoted by the National Association
of County and City Health Officials (NACCHO); and

• Work with the Transition Government to ensure national policies and infrastructure
increase the long-term capacity of local communities to manage effectively the
operation and maintenance of water and sanitation facilities through training and
technical support.

Health-Care and Nutrition

Despite one of the highest per capita rates of doctors in the world and the ability to
purchase medicines and medical devices from U.S. companies and the rest of the
international community for use in Cuban hospitals, the Cuban health-care system lacks basic supplies and equipment to treat the Cuban people on a daily basis. The regime has chosen its priority: health spending on services and medicines for foreigners, rather than its own citizens. Today, the regime is increasingly sending its doctors abroad and diverting even more of its medical resources to the treatment of foreigners in Cuba. In a form of medical apartheid, hospitals that treat regime officials and foreigners who pay hard currency have modern equipment, clean halls, and adequate staffing, whereas hospitals that treat the average Cuban lack basic medical supplies, such as bandages and over-the-counter painkillers, have filthy hallways, insufficient lighting, and are understaffed. Should a health or nutrition emergency arise when a Cuban transition occurs, quick assistance could help the Cuban Transition Government respond.

Potential U.S. Government responses to the array of possible needs during a
transition may be divided between actions necessary for critical life-saving response and those available during a recovery phase.

If requested, the U.S. Government working with United Nations (UN)
organizations, the international community, other donors, the U.S. private sector, and other partners could provide critical health and nutrition assistance in three major areas:

1) Preventing and Addressing Acute Malnutrition

• School systems could provide nutritional supplements to children to maintain an
adequate diet until the new Government can stabilize its own public-health and
medical system;

• The U.S. Government can support the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF),
other partners, and health facilities to implement supplementary feeding programs
and community therapeutic-care programs for the treatment of global acute
malnutrition and severe acute malnutrition;

• The U.S. Government, in coordination with the UN (The Pan American Health
Organization (PAHO) and UNICEF) and others can assist local health and
local/decentralized Government facilities to provide primary health care focus on
preventing and treating killer diseases, such as diarrhea, acute respiratory illness,
and preventing the recurrence of measles;

• The U.S. Government could assist the Transition Government, UNICEF, local health
facilities, and other partners to conduct immunization campaigns and vitamin A
deficiency, assess quality control, and continue of routine immunizations of all
children and those under five not already immunized; and
• Assist local health and local/decentralized Government facilities to rehabilitate key
local health infrastructure for effective delivery of care.

2) Ensure Supply of Drugs and Emergency Medical Commodities

• Help ensure adequate supplies of health and surgical kits are available;

• Provide HIV/AIDS testing kits to verify access to a safe blood supply; and

• Utilize nutritional and health-assessment information to inform where to direct acute
and non-acute food, medical and surgical supplies and kits.

3) Detect and Respond to Immediate Health and Nutrition Needs

• Conduct hands-on needs assessment to provide objective data and observations on the
state of health care, nutrition, and basic social services; and

• Conduct infectious-disease surveillance, and recommend actions for assistance where water, sanitation, and health conditions are poor or potentially harmful.
It will be crucial for the Cuban Transition Government to quickly ascertain the
health status or health care at the individual or community level. Therefore, supporting a functioning health system, preventing disease outbreaks, and other important health-care needs is essential for a healthy population to aid the Cuba Transition Government in guaranteeing political freedom, economic opportunity, and hold free and fair elections. If health and nutrition needs are limited or are under control, the U.S. Government could assist a Cuban Transition Government and other partners in recovery phase efforts in the following three priority areas, if requested:

1) Support Surveillance Systems to Detect and Control Infectious Diseases
Health and nutrition-surveillance systems monitor and help prevent potential
disease outbreaks. Assessments can reveal the capacity of Cuban hospitals, clinics and physicians to identify and respond to outbreaks of infectious diseases during a transition, and help create surveillance systems appropriate for Cuban health and nutrition needs. If Cuban health systems reveal weaknesses, the U.S. Government and others could support local health and local/decentralized Government facilities with the following actions, if necessary:

• Conduct routine, sentinel, or survey surveillance of key infectious diseases;

• Respond to evidence of declining immunization coverage by delivering
immunizations throughout the country through campaigns or routine clinic visits
depending on, the state of health- facility and cold-chain infrastructure; and

• Revise and update existing national health emergency preparedness plans to respond
to the, potential spread of new infectious diseases, such as pandemic influenza.

2) Meet the Ongoing Health Needs of Vulnerable Populations
If necessary, the U.S. Government could aid the Cuban Transition Government in
identifying possible gaps in health-care by providing assistance to accomplish the
following:

• Improve the quality of epidemiological data-collection to determine where needs exist
for short-term actions, and help with the preparation of long-term health-sector
plans;

• Assistance to help maintain the care of Cubans with chronic conditions; and

• Provide assistance to help re-staff health clinics that are understaffed or are otherwise
not functional.

3) Support Continued Functioning of the Cuban Health System

Ensuring that the Cuban health system is operational and opened up to serve all
Cubans is critical for the welfare of the Cuban people. Assessments and surveillance
systems can reveal obstacles, gaps, or deterioration in health care. If issues are identified and the Cuban Transition Government requests support, the U.S. Government could support the Cubans and others to conduct the following:

• Evaluate the quality and safety of basic health care, including hospitals, health-care
providers, elderly and nursing home care, maternal, child health , referral networks,
logistics, essential drug-supply systems, and emergency transportation; and

• Help Cuban health-care providers in assisting the Transition Government to review
health-related laws, regulations and policies to determine changes necessary for
sustaining and/or improving quality of health care to maintain social protection,
and, the proper monitoring and control of infectious diseases.

Food Security

Mismanaged domestic agricultural production and a long-standing drought have led
Cuba to increasingly import food to meet basic nutritional needs. Despite exports to Cuba from the United States of more than $1.2 billion in agricultural products between 2001 and 2006 and regular trade with other countries, the Cuban government has failed to meet the basic food needs of the Cuban people. The regime’s food-rationing system provides Cubans with less than half of their monthly food needs. To meet the shortfall, ordinary Cubans buy food on the black market or at inflated prices in Government-run dollar stores, if they can secure the funds. Government-run hotels that serve foreign tourists do not experience similar shortages.

The Cuban population’s basic food needs must be addressed for the Cuban
Transition Government to create the conditions to fully guarantee political freedom,
economic opportunity, and hold free and fair elections. Because acute food insecurity
could have a negative impact on the transition process, the U.S. Government should be prepared, if requested, to work with other partners to help the Cuban Transition
Government address the needs of affected populations.

The regime’s own statistics from 2005 indicate that at least 15 percent of Cuba’s
population already is at severe nutritional risk. Any negative shift in the capacity of the
Cuban Transition Government to meet basic food needs could result in instability and
increased levels of malnutrition. Under these circumstances, vulnerable populations are at particular risk, and could require special consideration.

If requested, the U.S. Government can offer help in coordinating food-security aid
activities with the Cuban Transition Government, local agencies, and civil society groups, to meet acute and recovery needs. The U.S. Government could help the new Government alleviate food insecurity by doing the following:

• Improving the availability, access, and utilization of food; and

• Protecting the income and property of Cuban families by maintaining and
strengthening traditional strategies for coping with food shortages, such as
diversifying food sources and finding alternative income opportunities.

If assessments reveal that malnutrition and food insecurity exist, the critical
emergency response must be rapid and effective. Upon request, the U.S. Government
could work with the Cuban Transition Government to identify all available existing Cuban food-distribution systems and decide which method would be the most effective to ensure the quick delivery of food.

If requested in a recovery phase, the U.S. Government can support the Transition
Government, Cuban farmers, and Cuban agricultural industry efforts to evaluate which
systems are most effective for the medium and long-term distribution of food or non-food related humanitarian aid, or general commercial supplies, in the country.
If necessary and requested, the U.S. Government and other partners could
implement the following activities:

• Assist local and general food distribution by the UN-World Food Program (WFP) in
accordance with internationally accepted standards to meet daily caloric needs in
response to critical malnutrition needs in identified populations;

• If necessary, establish Community Therapeutic Feeding Centers or traditional
Therapeutic Feeding Centers with local officials and implementing partners to
distribute supplemental foods to vulnerable groups identified in nutritional
assessments;

• Identify short-term Food- for-Work activities for able-bodied Cubans in local
economic, environmental, or other immediate labor property to assist a new
Government in creating a secure and stable community; and

• Identify and assess traditional coping mechanisms, including urban and rural small
home gardens to supplement emergency food needs.

The Cuban Transition Government may request support for Cuba’s agricultural and
livestock systems. If requested, the U.S. Government could assist the Cuban Transition Government in implementing the following activities to reduce the loss of productive assets, and maintain and strengthen traditional crisis-coping mechanisms vital for household food security:

• Identify and coordinate with appropriate Transition Ministries, local staff,
communities, and organizations such as the UN Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO) to implement critical agricultural and livestock activities;

• Support monitoring the affordability of food prices and suggest options if prices rise
above the capacity of most households to purchase food;

• Encourage the continuation of agricultural production, and determine its potential to
meet emergency food needs for general and/or supplemental food distribution or
food markets;

• Provide veterinary drugs and equipment, as needed, particularly vaccinations for
livestock to ensure the maintenance of any existing protein sources for the
population’s nutritional health;

• Support efforts to secure fuel, spare parts, and technical assistance to repair or to
reestablish the use of necessary agricultural machinery and equipment;

• Identify and support local market channels for agricultural inputs and livestock needs.
If not locally available, explore moving supplies from similar agricultural areas to
places in need; and

• Maintain food and economic access to contribute to the livelihoods of vulnerable
households via local seed fairs or other fairs that support the diversification of
livelihood options.

Once critical food insecurity and nutritional needs are stable, the U.S. Government’s
efforts can focus on assisting the Cuban Transition Government and others to improve food security. If requested, the U.S. Government could help the Cuban Transition Government work with local authorities to evaluate and determine the best options to improve food production and distribution systems. If requested, the U.S. Government could assist Cubans to build local capability to assess and address the following:

• Food-distribution patterns -- markets, general distribution;

• The availability of household income to meet additional food needs;

• Status of vulnerable populations; and

• Cuban- led efforts to strengthen local capacity to quickly identify and manage urgent
food needs.

If it is necessary to support agricultural and livestock systems in the recovery phase,
the U.S. Government and other partners could continue to support the Cuban Transition Government’s efforts to assess household coping mechanisms. Activities in the emergency phase could continue as required by secondary assessments and regular monitoring. If requested by the Cuban Transition Government, U.S. Government support could include the following:

• Support efforts to help agricultural production areas secure access to agricultural
system inputs such as identifying and providing locally adapted and accepted seed
varieties (from existing research and educational institutions), organic fertilizer,
tools (mechanization and irrigation), and veterinary supplies;

• Assist Cuban efforts to assess agricultural production methods that are sustainable and contribute to meeting national and local food needs. This can include assessing
agricultural cooperatives, land access and the removal of private market restrictions;

• Support local veterinary and agriculture extension agents through the provision of
supplies or (if appropriate), through training and capacity-building; and

• Support local agricultural universities in the production and multiplication of local
preferred seed varieties (including preservation of genetic resources), as well as
improved local varieties of essential food commodities.

Shelter The Cuban government has allowed the island’s housing situation to fall into severe crisis. U.S.-based housing experts have estimated Cuba is lacking adequate housing by at least 1.6 million units. It is commonplace for multiple families to inhabit inadequate tworoom structures or to “squat” in unsafe buildings. In light of additional damage and structural collapses as a result of hurricanes, it is unlikely that a complete resolution of Cuba’s severe housing crisis will occur during a transition period.

Yet, should the Cuban Transition Government request U.S. Government assistance
in this area, U.S. Government actions can focus on supporting a comprehensive assessment of Cuba’s housing needs and helping the Cuban Transition Government provide temporary shelter to vulnerable populations. Individuals without shelter are at increased risk of exposure to unhealthy and unsafe conditions, such as infectious diseases and risky behavior (including contributing to political instability). Furthermore, if unable to find food and clean water, persons without shelter can quickly become additional burdens on critical humanitarian aid, which could jeopardize the ability of the Cuban Transition Government to guarantee political freedom, economic opportunity, and hold free and fair elections.

If requested, the U.S. Government can assist the Cuban Transition Government and
other partners to conduct comprehensive assessments of shelter and settlement to ensure shelter assistance: (1) is in accordance with the priorities of local communities; (2) is supportive of the objectives of the Cuba Transition Government; and (3) complies with recognized international humanitarian shelter guidelines, such as those from the Sphere Project.

Rapid, critical assessments will reveal differences between social (e.g.,
overcrowding) and structural (e.g., repair and upgrading) issues. The U.S. Government can then base its support upon the provision of safe, adequate, habitable, and hazard-resistant shelter to identified vulnerable persons. U.S. Government aid can also promote “safer settlements” to reduce the adverse impacts of natural hazards, unhealthy, and unsafe conditions. The aforementioned includes providing basic, shelter-related services (e.g., water, sanitation, drainage), and providing garbage and/or solid-waste collection and disposal services to identified vulnerable populations.

If requested, the U.S. Government, in coordination with other partners and local
communities, can help the Cuban Transition Government to address critical shelter
assistance needs as follows:

• Provide safe, adequate, habitable, and hazard-resistant shelter; basic, shelter-related
services (e.g., water, sanitation, drainage); and garbage and/or solid-waste collection
and disposal services;

• Work with communities in designing and implementing locally-developed
interventions providing for shelter;

• Ensure all shelter and settlement interventions reflect hazard- mitigation measures; and

• Evaluate logistics-supply systems to ensure sufficient building supplies are available
for the timely construction of shelters, and are equitably disbursed throughout the
country.

Once critical shelter and settlement needs are addressed or are stable, if requested,
the U.S. Government can support the Cuban Transition Government’s efforts regarding
non-critical shelter and settlement issues. If required, possible actions during the recovery phase could include the following:

• Continuing to work with local communities to ensure their participation and voice in
conducting on-site, on-going needs assessments to provide an objective basis for
determining the effectiveness of shelter interventions;

• Reviewing of national policy frameworks to identify any changes required to ensure
long-term local community involvement in the planning and implementation of
shelter and settlement interventions, and ensuring programs receive sufficient
financial and human resource support from the Cuban Transition Government; and

• Reviewing community-based hazard-mitigation and preparedness plans, and
supporting revisions if necessary to promote “safer settlements.” These plans could
include structural (e.g., hurricane straps) and non-structural interventions (e.g.,
coastal zone management, floodplain management, hillside development
ordinances, and local land-use planning).

Protection of the Most Vulnerable Populations

“Protection” is a term applied to efforts to reduce physical, emotional, and social
risks to a population, partic ularly vulnerable individuals and groups. A Cuban Transition Government will face immediate pressures to provide equal access to basic services, and to promote the rights and dignity of individuals, families, groups, and communities. If requested to provide assistance, the U.S. Government should ensure incorporation of internationally recognized protection principles into all assistance initiatives for the Cuban people. These principles could guarantee meeting the needs of the most vulnerable, while providing a potent example of respect for the dignity of all people.

The U.S. Government could do this in several ways:

• Incorporating protection into the design and implementation of humanitarian
assistance programs to identify and support vulnerable populations to reduce or
manage risks from violence, abuse, harassment, and exploitation;

• Assessing the needs of specific vulnerable populations, and considering how to
provide assistance to ensure their needs are met, including by reinforcing positive
coping mechanisms among individuals and communities; and

• Establishing information systems in the earliest stages of humanitarian activities to
share timely and accurate information with the population, and between assistance
providers.

If requested, the U.S. Government could support, along with other partners, a Cuban
Transition Government’s adherence to protection principles, now and during critical and
non-critical periods during the transition as follows:

• Ensuring protection principles are understood and adhered to by all assistance sectors and organizations;

• Assessing affected populations, with special attention paid to identifying vulnerable
individuals and groups and developing strategies to reinforce positive coping
mechanisms and ensure basic services meet their needs;

• Developing a monitoring and reporting system to ensure assistance reaches vulnerable populations and to identify and resolve protection problems;

• Establishing a tracing system for separated families and supporting reunification as
soon as possible. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) could also
provide useful assistance in this area;

• Ensuring the safety of public records and other official documents, including landregistry documents; and

• Establishing a public- information system via radio, TV, and other means to reach the
broadest number of people.

Once critical protection needs are addressed, if requested, the U.S. Government
could support, with other partners, a Cuban Transition Government’s efforts during the
recovery phase to do the following:

• Developing more robust assessments, monitoring, and service-delivery to vulnerable
populations;

• Resolving family reunification cases; and

• Providing individual identifications for those without, if necessary.

Educational Systems

Cuba’s educational system is based on the Soviet model of combining education, physical labor, and political ideology to indoctrinate youth. While Cuba reports one of Latin America’s best literacy rates, children’s textbooks are ideologically skewed. Independent thought is neither encouraged nor allowed. As part of their indoctrination, adolescent students are sent away to poorly run work camps in the countryside. Because of an exodus of seasoned educators to jobs in the tourism industry, the Cuban educational system relies on teachers- in-training, including 18-year-old high-school graduates. Parents are increasingly expressing concern that these new teachers do not have adequate training. As a result, the regime now prohibits trained teachers from working in higher-paying, dollarbased jobs.

If requested, the U.S. Government could help the Cuban Transition Government
keep schools open, and help students, including vulnerable individuals, remain in school during a transition.

The first step to meet this objective could be to conduct a field-based needs
assessment of the Cuban education system’s infrastructure, staffing, funding, and materials, plus Cuban libraries, in cooperation with Cuban Transition authorities. A preliminary assessment within the first three months could form the basis for longer-term assistance planning. This assessment should include facilities currently used for instructional purposes at all levels, as well as facilities shut down or converted by the regime that might be retur ned to educational uses.

If needed and requested by the Cuban Transition Government, U.S. Government
educational support, in coordination with other partners, could include the following:

• Assisting the Cuban Transition Government in finding options for vulnerable
populations if the transition creates problems of continuity with basic services or
economic hardship deprives individuals from participating in education activities;

• Organizing groups of volunteer teachers, from abroad and overseas Cuban teacher
associations, such as National Association of Cuban American Educators to help
support Cuban teachers; and

• Engaging donors, including Organization of American States (OAS) countries, and
appropriate publishers to work with Cuban teachers to supply temporary
instructional materials to replace politicized materials withdrawn by the Cuban
Transition Government.

During a recovery period, if requested and necessary, the U.S. Government could
support the Cuban Transition Government’s efforts to coordinate with international donors and assistance agencies, such as religious bodies, private donors, civic groups, and the Cuban Transition Government to do the following:

• Ensure educational facilities and services are available to as many of the Cuban
people as possible; and

• Assist the Cuban transition educational system to remove legal, social, and health
impediments to vulnerable populations who need special consideration in either
traditional educational systems or in non-traditional education systems, such as
those for current or released prisoners, mentally ill individuals, the growing elderly
population, ho meless youth, or drug abusers.
IRIS.

Introduction

A Cuban Transition Government will face the daunting challenge of ending the brutal,
one-party totalitarian state that has exercised complete control over all aspects of life on the island and of organizing a democratic process so that the Cuban people can reclaim their right to determine their own future. The current regime manipulates migration and uses violence and its absolute control of the Cuban economy to try to forestall the emergence of a viable alternative to one-man rule. Despite cruel repression, Cuba’s independent civil society and opposition remain dedicated to securing liberty, meaningful change, and reconciliation for Cuba’s 11 million citizens.

Cuba’s legitimate future can only be decided by Cubans, for Cubans. They alone
have the right to determine their own fate. Cubans have the right to see their sovereign will expressed through free and fair, multiparty elections. U.S. law provides that we can assist a transition government only if it is committed to early elections. We cannot support a Cuban government that does not allow its citizens to freely elect their leaders. U.S. support will not be made available to a government that adopts economic or other policies that suggest change but which do not actually achieve the goal of dismantling the repressive regime and making a full transition to democracy.

To meet international standards for free and fair elections, Cubans from across the
political spectrum would have to be able to enjoy internationally recognized rights,
including their right to organize politically, to carry on an open and transparent debate
through a free press, to have a secret ballot, and to engage in voter education and poll
observation. They would also have to be free from intimidation in the legitimate exercise of these rights.

The transition to such an open environment, sufficiently in advance of elections to
meet international standards, implies that a Cuban Transition Government will need certain types of assistance from the international community. U.S. preparations should be structured to provide assistance bilaterally but should also focus on building international consensus and assistance focused around supporting the process of building democracy in Cuba.

The principal purpose of any U.S. Government assistance should be to help Cubans
create an environment where free and fair elections can take place. Experience
demonstrates that the first six months of any assistance program are critical. This 180-day period will surely also be critical to helping Cubans secure a successful transition to democracy. Activities should be properly sequenced to have better impact. This means that the U.S. Government should be prepared well before a transition begins to be able to respond in a timely manner. We cannot wait until a transition begins to design assistance programs. We should do those things now and be ready to implement our aid as soon as we are asked to do so.

A Cuban Transition Government cannot be expected to rectify, in a few months, the
consequences of decades of dictatorships. Accordingly, the U.S. should encourage the Cuban Transition Government to focus on those steps that will allow the election of a truly democratic, representative government that can take on that historic challenge.
A Transition Government should not be overburdened with tasks that are important
to the medium and long term growth of Cuban society, but not essential to elections for a democratic government. This will only delay a real transition. Keeping these priorities straight will require real discipline on the part of U.S. agencies and private institutions eager to help the Cuban people.

U.S. assistance can be provided to help Cubans overcome obstacles to democratic
elections and move rapidly to create an environment conducive to free and fair multiparty elections.

Release Of Political Prisoners

The release of political prisoners is a sine qua non for U.S. assistance and an
essential precondition for creating an environment in which democratic elections may be held. It is not possible to create the infrastructure of democracy if key political actors remain in prison and unable to participate because of their political views.
Many Cuban prisoners of conscience are well known to the international
community. There are hundreds of others who are less well known.

U.S. policy makers will need the most accurate data possible to share with a Cuban
Transition Government concerning those who should be released immediately to meet our criteria and international standards.

In addition, in compliance with international human rights standards, the Cuban
Transition Government should establish a process for Cuban authorities to review claims of political incarceration, including cases of persons with apparent criminal convictions that were politically-motivated. The U.S. Government will be ready to provide technical assistance to help establish and support such a process.

Priority areas for U.S. Government-offered assistance

In order to help a Cuban Transition Government adhere to international human
rights standards:

• Maintain a database of political prisoners – By collecting and collating data now from
credible sources the U.S. Government should prepare itself to provide a Transition
Government a list of those prisoners the U.S. and other international actors consider
to be political prisoners who should be released forthwith;

• Provide assistance to help former political prisoners re- integrate into society;

• Provide healthcare to prisoners; and

• Assemble and maintain a current list of criminal justice system personnel implicated
in abuse or corruption that will be available to all U.S. Government personnel
discussing conditions for potential U.S. assistance with a Cuban Transition
Government.

Eliminating Legal Obstacles To Freedom Of Speech,
Freedom Of The Press, And Freedom Of Political Association

Current Cuban law and practice prevents the right to assemble without the
permission of the regime, criminalizes dissemination of information contrary to the official line, and provides the state with a monopoly over the press. It also institutio nalizes the Communist Party of Cuba as the only legitimate political party, and gives it Constitutional superiority over the government and society. Obviously, such obstacles must be suspended or eliminated at the outset of a transition period if Cubans are to be able to debate their future and organize themselves for free elections. Elimination of such obstacles will be a sine qua non for U.S. assistance to a Cuban Transition Government.

Priority areas for U.S. Government offered assistance:

• Designate a U.S. agency to maintain an authoritative compilation of the various laws,
regulations, and policies that are clear obstacles to the exercise by Cubans of their
basic freedoms so that U.S. officials can offer a clear and consistent view to a
Cuban Transition Government of what steps it would need to take in this regard;
and

• Development by qualified legal experts of an inventory of the obstacles in Cuban law
to creating an environment for democratic elections as well as recommendations of
the legal alternatives for repealing, amending, or suspending such provisions.

Preparing For Competitive Multi-Party Elections And Democratic Process

After almost 50 years of having a one party state imposed upon them, Cubans who
desire a democratic future will need to build the infrastructure of democracy, in particular a competitive political process, an independent media, and credible election machinery.

The United States Government and other bilateral and multilateral donors should,
working with qualified non-governmental organizations, immediately be ready to help
Cubans prepare effectively to participate in their own democratic process. A critical
challenge for the Cuban Transition Government will be to replace the one-party system
with a level playing field for a competitive political process.

The advent of democracy in other former Soviet-bloc totalitarian states in particular
provides a wealth of valuable experiences for Cubans to draw upon. While no one
country’s experience exactly mirrors that of Cuba, a Cuban Transition Government will
find there are many experts with experience in assisting similar transitions.

Continuing to strengthening independent and legitimate organizations on the island,
including the country’s courageous civic opposition and Cuba’s religious institutions, will be essential to establishing a true democracy. The United States is committed to helping Cuba’s independent civil society develop both before and after a transition is underway.

Priority areas for U.S. Government offered assistance:

• U.S. and other international party building NGOs should continue their work with
Cuban democrats in advance of a transition and be prepared to substantially ramp
up these efforts once a transition is underway (i.e., help Cuban democrats do
appropriate assessments, develop plans, identify training for personnel, and take
other preparatory steps now so that they are able to act promptly once a transition is
underway);

• Offer support and training to strengthen a range of independent organizations such as
youth, women, labor, and faith-based groups to engage effectively in democratic
processes and to begin to lay the foundation for national justice and reconciliation;
and

• Cuban political organizations committed to working in a democratic system must be
prepared to provide the Cuban people a full range of political choices when free and
fair elections are he ld; preparatory steps should include, but not be limited to,
political party training that would help nascent parties develop platforms, field
candidates, and reach out to voters.

Support a Free and Independent Media

Restoring freedom of the press will be essential to securing free and fair multiparty
elections for the people of Cuba. U.S. assistance programs have reflected the importance of a free media, providing rhetorical and concrete assistance to independent and dissident journalists on the is land. A Cuban Transition Government will need to lift the state’s monopoly on the media. It will do no good to have political parties and an honest election system if voters cannot learn of the political choices available to them or of their rights as voters.

A free media will help inform voters of significant political options and provide
them with objective information concerning their rights and voting procedures.

Uncensored news and information can also help counter rumors spread by those seeking to undermine a democratic transition by reducing tensions and uncertainty.

Priority areas for U.S. Government-offered assistance:

• Offer training on principles and functioning of a free press, as well as short-term
material assistance for providing election coverage, such as newspaper inserts on
coverage of election issues and televised debates;

• Training on use of media to foster public debate on issues of concern;

• Offer technical assistance from private sector media experts and journalists to support the development of private media;

• Provide short-term material assistance to new independent newspapers and media
outlets;

• Offer training to journalists and help the media disseminate accurate information, in
order to dispel rumors; and

• Help Cubans join the modern world by supporting uncensored access to the Internet.

Support For Free And Fair Election Administration

Cuba is a one-party state where virtually any form of independent political or civic
activity is banned. While elected state institutions legally exist, they operate under the
complete control of Cuba’s Communist authorities. The U.S. Government needs to be
prepared to help the Cuban Transition Government modify Cuba’s electoral system to
accommodate pluralism and, ultimately, produce credible, legitimate results. To assure both Cubans and the international community that the elections are free and fair, the Cuban Transition Government will likely wish to consider asking the United Nations and the Organization of American States or other international organizations to support the electoral process with aid and observation missions.

A Cuban Transition Government committed to free and fair elections will need to
reform the state's election machinery. While many technical components of the existing system may be feasible for use in a free and fair election, there is a difference between an election administration system designed to produce a foreordained result in a single-party police state, and a system capable of credibly administering a genuinely democratic election process that respects the rule of law and human rights.

A Cuban Transition Government will need international assistance to prepare for
free and fair elections. The United States and other potential sources of assistance must be ready to respond immediately. Assessments of shortcomings in Cuba’s existing electoral process and arrangements for recruiting expert personnel to help address these shortcomings should be in place before the transition if we are to be ready to respond at the outset of a transition.

The credibility of elections both domestically and internationally depends in great
measure on a transparent and non-partisan election administration that is supported by public electoral observation, especially where the population lacks trust in the existing system. Democratic countries, including the United States and the other countries of the region, allow domestic and international election monitoring of the entire electoral process (from pre-election phases such as voter registration, party campaigning and media access to post-election activities) as an important contribut ion to their efforts to instill confidence among voters in the transparency of the process. Monitoring by party representatives and neutral bodies, in addition to international observation and appropriate media reporting, enhances the credibility of the process. Similarly, voter education, primarily through nongovernmental
organizations, is fundamentally important.

Priority areas for U.S. Government-offered assistance:

• Support an assessment of what needs to be done immediately to rectify any
shortcomings in Cuba’s election administration process: enough is known about the
current system to allow an assessment to be made now so that potential donors will
have a clear idea of what will be needed in terms of appropriate revisions to
electoral legislation, technical expertise, and material resources;

• Ensure that experienced international elections experts are available immediately to
assist Cuban Transition authorities in establishing an elections system that respects
the rule of law and the democratic process;

• Ascertain the potential benefits of a role for the UN and OAS in election capacity
building and observation;

• Support for a robust voter education campaign which focuses on voter rights,
including the right to a secret ballot and the full range of technical election matters
such as processes for updating the electoral registry, voter registration, voter
eligibility, counting votes, fraud prevention, lodging complaints, location of polling
places, and how results will be issued on Election Day, among others;

• Support for the establishment of a credible domestic monitoring effort working with
existing democratic forces to train and develop a network of credible, non-partisan
domestic observers, using models developed in other transition countries; and

• Support for international observers.
Offer appropriate technical support to a credible interim election authority:

• Assistance to ensure that the voter registration system is reliable and accurate;

• Appropriate technical support to create a coherent organization and logistical plan,
communication strategy, and timeline for administering elections;

• Appropriate technical support to develop and implement a communications strategy
that ensures transparency and confidence in the electoral process; and

• Appropriate technical support to develop and implement an election dispute resolution system.

Support For Professional, Institutional Military

During a transition, Cubans will want to promote and guarantee the professionalism,
dignity, and political neutrality of their armed forces.

A Cuban Transition Government will likely rely on this institution to perform many
tasks during the transition period. The challenge for the Transition Government will be to harness the military’s energies and direct it in ways that contribute to a successful transition period.

Priority areas for U.S. Government-offered assistance:

• Offer assistance in preparing the Cuban military forces to adjust to an appropriate role in a democracy.

Introduction

Establishing the foundation of economic growth will be vital to ensuring that the
Cuban Transition Government guarantees political freedom, economic opportunity and
holds free and fair elections.

For almost 50 years, the Cuban people have lived under a closed economic system
designed to maintain control. It has stifled economic activity and discouraged
entrepreneurship, keeping the Cuban people occupied with surviving and keeping food on the table for their families. The economic changes sure to take place in Cuba as it moves toward free and fair multiparty elections are thus likely to both create new opportunities for many Cubans and also cause some anxiety.

The Cuban people are well aware that the old system has not worked. Many will
embrace entrepreneurship; others will be unsure of their ability to prosper under a freemarket system. A Cuban Transition Government will face significant pressure to take quick action to increase economic opportunities and give the Cuban people hope for an economic stake in the new system. Quick and visible economic progress will give important legitimacy to the Cuban Transition Government as it moves to hold democratic elections.

Cubans have a demonstrated capacity to respond to economic stimuli. During the
“Special Period” of the early- to mid- 1990s when Castro briefly lessened some regimeimposed economic restraints, the Cuban people demonstrated their ability to react quickly to economic incentives that benefited both themselves and society at large. Cubans have also revealed great entrepreneurship through their participation in the thriving informa markets.

Providing new economic opportunities will generate employment and economic
growth. The task will be hard, but the rewards will be many. A Cuban Transition
Government will likely confront the need to legalize many of the essential economic tasks now performed by the informal market. It will also face a number of critical issues ranging from stabilizing the Cuban macroeconomic condition to creating a microeconomic framework that will allow private enterprise to grow. It will confront a long history of poor labor relations and demands to respect the rights of workers to form unions and bargain collectively. It will need to ensure that its critical infrastructure is not only adequately functioning, but on the road to recovery.

Because of their sensitive nature, many issues of economic stability and change will
require the decisions of the Cuban Transition Government. However, other actors,
including Cubans abroad, the international community, and the U.S. Government will have an important role to play in responding to requests from the Cuban Transition Government for support and advice. Assuming the Cuban Transition Government is receptive, Cubans outside Cuba can provide both much needed resources in the form of investments, increased remittances and loans, and needed advice on all aspects of working within a freemarket system.

Macroeconomic Stability

Once an economic transition is underway, the Cuban Transition Government will be
challenged to stabilize its macroeconomic situation. Historical evidence indicates that
establishing and maintaining essential government services, avoiding high inflation,
encouraging employment, and developing clear property rights will be essential to the
successful transition from a communist system to a market-based economic system.
The Cuban Transition Government will face difficult budgetary problems. Currently, it
can only meet its budget needs with the considerable support of foreign donors, primarily Venezuela. A Cuban Transition Government may not have access to that support, given the Chavez Government’s ideological basis, but may be able to turn to new sources of assistance from multilateral donors. The Cuban Transition Government will face the challenge of strengthening its ability to collect taxes, as well as beginning the process of reorienting the tax code to a market-based economy.

A decline in revenues would force the difficult choice between cutting spending and
running bigger budget deficits. The ability of the central government to borrow from its
own banking system without increasing the money supply will likely be very limited.
Some spending cuts would be difficult as the Cuban Transition Government will most
likely wish to maintain social services and the civil service payroll during the transition. As previous transitions have shown, the Cuban Transition Government may face a decision to cut spending on subsidies to state-run companies. While this would spur the restructuring of the state enterprise sector, it may also result in significant employee layoffs.

In order to support macroeconomic stability, a Cuban Transition Government is likely to want to avoid inflationary financing from the Central Bank. Instead, it could seek funding in the form of loans and grants from the international donor community.
Cuba’s balance of payments will likely undergo significant adjustment during the
transition if the exchange rate becomes convertible and restrictions on trade and crossborder financial transactions are lifted. A decision by the Venezuelan Gove rnment to suddenly cut its energy subsidies to Cuba (estimated at more than $1 billion per year) could lead to severe short-term fuel shortages with commensurately negative consequences for the Cuban economy; though its potential impact is difficult to fully measure as much of the energy subsidies currently are diverted to support the regime’s repressive security apparatus. However, increased flows of foreign investment and tourism receipts could help offset this impact. Sufficient resources will be required to meet government needs and provide adequate foreign exchange, to avoid having the Cuban economy fall into even greater disarray. New capital flows from outside the country will be necessary to ensure successful elections and an orderly transition to a democratic society.

In order to sustain economic growth in the post-election period, the Cuban Transition
Government will need to consider steps to reorient Cuba’s state controlled financial system to a market-based system. Both new and existing firms will need access to capital. As the transition proceeds and new financial service firms enter the market, the Cuban Transition Government will face issues of supervision and regulation of the financial system to ensure adherence to international norms as well as to build confidence in the financial system.

Should a Cuban Transition Government request United States assistance in its
economic transition, the U.S. Government, as permitted under U.S. law, could:

• Provide technical assistance in the areas of tax policy and administration, budget
policy and management, banking and financial sector reform, government debt
issuance and management, and financial enforcement (anti-money laundering, anticorruption, and to counter financing of terrorism);

• Offer short-term technical assistance to Cuba’s Central Bank and help link Cuba’s
payments system to the U.S. payments system (via the Federal Reserve System);

• Assuming a Presidential determination as required by the Libertad Act, take steps to
support the processing of Cuba’s application for membership to the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and Inter-American Development Bank,
provided that membership takes effect after a democratically-elected government in
Cuba is in power;

• Assuming a Presidential determination as required by the Libertad Act, support
technical assistance and support assistance financed by grants to Cuba from
International Financial Institutions (IFIs); and

• Loosen or lift controls on financial flows to Cuba to allow needed entry of capital.
Integration with the International Trade and Financial System

In order to sustain a growing economy, provide for a rapid increase in its citizens’ standard of living, and generate employment, a Cuban Transit ion Government will have to consider substantially opening its economy to international trade and finance. Cuba began this process during the “Special Period,” but subsequently retrenched. In the short term, the present scarcity of goods of all types in Cuba suggests that allowing greater importation would have little effect on employment in the few import-competing industries that presently exist.

The importation of capital and intermediate goods, however, should allow for the development of new industries. The Cuban Transition Government could replace quantitative restrictions on trade with a tariff system that would be less economically distorting and would provide a new source of revenue for the new government. If the Cuban Transition Government pursues expanding trade, Cuban and foreign companies will need increased access to trade finance.

As it proceeds to normalize relations with external creditors, the Cuba Transition
Government will also be confronted with the problem of the island’s substantial debt.
However, beginning to address Cuba’s debt will allow Cuba to re-enter world capital
markets. During the transition period, the Cuban Transition Government could begin to
fully catalogue these claims and take preparatory steps for Cuba’s re-entry into the IMF.

Should Cuba need debt relief from its Paris Club creditors, Cuba will likely first need an
IMF program. A standard rescheduling of Cuba’s debt in the Paris Club could be achieved at no budget cost to the U.S. Government under certain conditions. Any Paris Club debt treatment beyond a standard rescheduling would likely require both legislative authorization and an appropriation from the U.S. Congress.

Should the Cuban Transition Government request United States assistance in its
economic transition, the U.S. Government can:

• Support increased access for Cuba’s exports to new markets by encouraging allies to
include a free Cuba in regional free trade arrangements;

• Explore potential for a U.S.-Cuba Free Trade Agreement with a democraticallyelected
Cuban Government;

• Explore setting up a trade finance facility that would work with private banks
operating in Cuba to provide working capital;

• Support trade ties with the Transition Government by setting up commercial and
agricultural sections in the U.S. Interests Section that would provide information to
and establish contacts for U.S. companies interested in exporting to or investing in
Cuba; and

• Once a democratically-elected Free Cuba Government has become a member of the
IMF and has obtained the necessary upper credit tranche IMF program, support
rescheduling of Cuba’s international debt under a Paris Club agreement, if it is
determined that Cuba needs debt relief.

Encourage Small Business Development

The historical record demonstrates that small business development is critical to
generating employment during transitions from closed to open economic systems. Small businesses are the engine of economic growth in many economies, including the United States. During the very limited liberalization of the 1990s, small businesses were an important source of new employment in Cuba.

At times, some small businesses have been permitted to operate within the Cuban system, but only under strict limitations. More recently, the regime has cracked down heavily on all independent economic activity. Many more businesses operate informally in the black market. In the early stages of the transition, the Cuban Transition Government will face pressures to lift restrictions on small businesses and to legalize many activities now forced into the informal sector.

As new businesses form, they will require financing. The flow of remittances and
other private funding to Cuba during a transition will be crucial to providing the Cuban
people with the resources they need not only to meet their daily needs, but also to prosper through the creation of small/micro and medium enterprises.


Should the Cuban Transition Government request United States assistance to
encourage small business development, the U.S. Government could:

• Establish micro-credit facilities, in cooperation with IFIs and NGOs;

• Encourage microfinance organizations that are already active in providing
microfinance in Latin America to offer their services in Cuba during the transition;

• Provide technical assistance and expertise in the commercial law arena to support
economic development;

• Help establish Business Information Centers (BICs) based on the U.S. Small Business Administration model used in other developing nations; and

• Encourage other organizations to provide much needed technical advice and
entrepreneurial training to small businesses.

Ensuring Labor Rights are Respected

Cuba is a party to seven of the eight fundamental conventions of the International Labor
Organization (ILO). However, the ILO and several other organizations remain critical of
the labor rights situation in Cuba.

Cuban law does not allow workers in Cuba to form and join unions of their choice, and
does not provide for the right to strike. Although collective bargaining is legal, it does not exist in practice. The ILO Committee of Experts has recommended changes to Cuba’s labor law concerning freedom of association, protection of the right to organize, and collective bargaining.

The Cuban state continues to set salaries for workers, and is virtually the only employer in Cuba. In addition, the Castro regime requires foreign investors to contract workers through state-owned employment services. It decides who can and who cannot work for the foreign firm. The regime charges a very high fee to the employer, but usually passes less than five percent of that fee to the employee. A Cuban Transition Government will likely want to begin to free labor markets by allowing individual Cubans the right to seek employment where they choose and to be paid a market-driven wage.

Should the Cuban Transition Government request United States assistance to ensure
labor rights are respected, the U.S. Government can:

• Provide technical assistance to assist with labor law reform and improve labor law
enforcement to guarantee respect for basic labor rights;

• Review the role of the Labor Ministry to allow for the development of institutions that
will enable a free labor market to function;

• Provide technical assistance in establishing and ensuring the adherence to core labor standards compatible with ILO standards;

• Develop public awareness of labor issues and train Cuban partners to conduct
seminars on current labor laws, proposed reform efforts, and available services; and

• Provide technical advice and hands-on assistance to help countries modernize job
placement and long-term training facilities to help ease the transition from a
government-controlled economy to a free economy labor market.

Property Rights and Confiscated Property

Perhaps no issue will be more fraught with difficulty and complexity for the Cuban
Transition Government than the status of property rights and confiscated properties.
The Cuban Transition Government will likely and properly wish to reassure the Cuban people that they will be secure in their homes and property, and not subject to arbitrary expulsion, and that a democratically elected government, representing the will of the Cuban people, should make decisions regarding confiscated property. At that time, persons whose property was expropriated without compensation in Cuba may choose to pursue legal remedies or seek compensation. A democratically elected Cuban Government will have a number of models to draw upon in devising a strategy for assuring property rights and addressing claims on confiscated properties.

The Cuban population has almost doubled while there has been no evidence of a
corresponding increase in housing. In fact, there has been considerable deterioration in the housing that does currently exist. Over the years, the Cuban people have obtained various degrees of ownership of their homes. Some have full title; others have the right to pass their homes on to their children. Some have title only for their lifetimes. Many Cubans live in what were originally single-family homes but are now divided into numerous small apartments, sometimes with makeshift additions. In preparation for democratic government, the Cuban Transition Government should ensure that a residency database is in place and that officials of the government do not use their power to create a “piñata” of homes as happened in Nicaragua following the end of Sandinista rule.

A democratic Cuban Government will also have to address the disposition of
confiscated industrial, commercial, and agricultural properties. For the most part, these decisions will be part of the process of privatization as part of a transition to an open, market-based economy. However, the Cuban Transition Government may find that some large infrastruc ture or industrial projects necessary to jump-start the economy may require early privatization to attract needed capital and technical expertise. In some cases, previous transitional governments have returned property to former owners on the condition of an early injection of capital. In general, however, Cubans may wish to leave such decisions to a legitimate, democratically elected Cuban Government.

Should the Cuban Transition Government request United States assistance to
protect property rights and address confiscated property, the U.S. Government can:

• Reassure the Cuban people that the U.S. Government will not support any arbitrary
effort to evict them from their homes; and

• Provide technical assistance on the experiences of former Communist countries in
dealing successfully with issues of property rights and privatization.

Agriculture

Approximately one-fourth of Cuba’s labor force (1.1 million people in 2002) works
in the agricultural sector. This does not include those emp loyed in food or sugar
processing. A jumble of farm organization structures characterizes the sector. Some state farms still exist, but cooperatives now occupy most of the agricultural land and employ perhaps half the agricultural labor force. The closure of three quarters of the sugar mills in the last few years has left an estimated 200 thousand farmers and rural laborers without work. Few workers have found new jobs.

All farmers are required to negotiate a contract with their local acopios, the state
intermediaries who buy the crops at state controlled prices and provide the agricultural
inputs. Central planners, through the acopios, dictate which crops are to be produced and where they should be planted. There are considerable losses in the transport of agriculture products from farm to market. The system provides the domestic component of the food sold in state markets and allotted to the rationing system. No independent financial institutions or providers of agricultural inputs currently exist. Since the mid 1990s, farmers have been allowed to sell part of their production through farmers markets.

Cuba could be a significant exporter of tropical fruits, citrus, tobacco, and possibly
sugar once it begins to recover. It could also significantly increase its domestic food
production. However, disentangling the current system to produce a more productive and market responsive agricultural sector will take time, and a Cuban Transition Government is likely to want to leave it to a democratically-elected government.

In the interim, the Cuban Transition Government could begin to lift restrictions on
farmers and marketing. Judging from the success of the farmers markets, the removal of restrictions would lead to a significant increase in agricultural production, even with the current land tenure pattern. As farmers move away from the state acopios, there will be a need for new institutions to provide agricultural finance and farm inputs.

Should the Cuban Transition Government request United States assistance to
stabilize existing Cuban agricultural capability and local markets in its economic transition, the U.S. Government can:

• Provide technical expertise on the development of agricultural financial markets and
marketing of farm inputs;

• Provide technical expertise to achieve improved domestic production of food, faster
transit to markets or food processing operations, and proper storage facilities;

• Help establish accessible, efficient markets, including farmers markets and retail
grocers, that ensure price stability and incentives for growers to bring produce to
market;

• Provide technical advice on implementing and enforcing food safety requirements for
producers, processors, and retailers;

• Assist in the evaluation of capabilities and needs, as well as provide guidance in
manufacturing requirements for exporting products to foreign markets; and

• Assist in the development of a sanitary and phyto-sanitary (SPS) regulatory system, as well as other regulatory frameworks necessary for exporting.

Infrastructure

All sectors of Cuba’s physical infrastructure (transportation, energy, water, housing,
communications, and the environment) need significant overhaul. In general, all
infrastructure sectors have suffered from cumulative problems that the Castro regime has failed to address. Routine maintenance and upkeep is necessary for all physical
infrastructures to assure its proper functioning.

The Cuban Transition Government initially may want to concentrate on stabilizing
those infrastructure sectors most critical to advancing humanitarian assistance such as its transportation and distribution networks and its electrical generation, transmission, and distribution systems.

Ports, roads, and bridges suffer from a serious lack of investment, as do many of the
supporting components of a healthy transportation and distribution system. For example, warehousing facilities are in short supply, and the rail network is old and suffers from disuse caused by the collapse of the sugar industry. These issues will affect the Cuban Transition Government’s ability to provide humanitarian assistance, especially food to areas outside of the major cities.

Cuban airports badly need safety upgrades to both their physical facilities and air
traffic control systems. The current air traffic communications arrangement, as well as the communications system between Cuba and the United States, is barely sufficient for current traffic levels and will be completely inadequate for accommodating the projected traffic growth following the emergence of the Cuban Transition Government.
Power generation plants are antiquated and will eventually need complete replacement.

In fact, the current operational capacity is less than 40 percent of the
estimated total generation capacity. Moreover, under the Castro regime, industrial and
commercial users have a higher priority than residential consumers when supplies are
insufficient. This might be an area that the Cuban Transition Government may wish to
review in order to fully satisfy what may be expected to be growing residential demand.

The electricity generation, transmission, and distribution sectors in particular will
need to be stabilized as soon as possible. Electricity on demand, or the lack thereof, will be an early sign to the Cuban people of whether hope is in store for a better life. The current system is plagued by blackouts caused by a host of factors including improper maintenance, use of inappropriate fuel, aging equipment, and unsuitable spare parts.

Water distribution lines are from pre-revolutionary Cuba, are much deteriorated,
and are in need of replacement. Distribution facilities are inadequate, especially in regions away from major metropolitan areas. The same is true for the existing Cuban sewage system. Each will require physically extensive and financially expensive upgrading that should be left for the democratically-elected Cuban Government.

Housing is another critical infrastructure sector that has suffered under the Castro
regime. Much of the current housing stock is in a bad state of disrepair, and will need
significant upgrading. In addition, most experts note that there is a major housing shortage on the island. Estimates of the housing shortfall go as high as 1.6 million units, leading to significant overcrowding and further stress on the already poorly maintained housing infrastructure.

Paradoxically, two sectors, communications and environment, may actually be in a
better position to benefit as a consequence of past neglect. The lack of an extensive
communications infrastructure, coupled with the worldwide industry’s continuing
technological breakthroughs, may offer Cuba some real alternatives to wholesale physical replacement of existing wired telephone infrastructure. Cuban Transition Government should look to the experiences of other developing countries in modernizing its telecommunications infrastructure. This is also a sector that should benefit fairly rapidly from free market solutions, given a supportive legal, institutional, and regulatory environment where private enterprises can thrive.

Extensive environmental degradation has occurred under numerous failed Cuban
government central-planning initiatives in manufacturing and agriculture. Cuba faces a
number of environmental issues ranging from degraded soil, salt-water intrusion into its
fresh water supplies, wildlife habitat destruction, and air pollution.

In terms of land use, deforestation and over-cultivation, soil compaction caused by
the use of heavy farm machinery, and strip mining have caused excessive soil salinity and heavy land erosion. Salt-water intrusion into freshwater streams has occurred as a
consequence of agricultural runoff from heavily treated fields. Untreated wastewater from cities, sugar mills and other food-processing plants, and nickel-mining operations have caused extensive damage. In addition, irrigation practices have resulted in low
groundwater levels, causing significant salt-water intrusion in fresh water and salinity in
coastal soils.

Water quality issues, including increased salinity and sedimentation in freshwater
streams, have negatively affected Cuba’s wildlife habitat, and an over-reliance on enclave tourism has degraded Cuba’s fragile ecosystems, particularly its massive reef system that serves as a spawning ground for a wide variety of aquatic species. Air emissions from industry and transportation are another environmental concern. Oil- fired power generation using high-sulfur domestic fuel is a major source of air pollution. Moreover, although Cuba has relatively few vehicles per capita, the vehicles it does possess tend to be old and in need of pollution controls and maintenance.

Cuba already has the knowledge and technical ability to address its infrastructure
failings. What Cuba lacks today is the financial support and legal reform necessary to
implement the needed improvements.

Should the Cuban Transition Government request United States assistance with
essential infrastructure in its economic transition, the U.S. Government can:

• Conduct assessments by relevant agencies of the critical infrastructure, as outlined
above, with an immediate focus on the short-term need to provide humanitarian and
technical assistance;

• Assist in forming a Friends of a Free Cuba group of donors at the beginning of the
transition period to address immediate infrastructure issues;

• Provide technical assistance to Cuba’s air transportation system to increase air safety between the United States and Cuba, to ensure Cuba’s ability to adequately handle short-term emergency assistance, to determine Cuba’s needs for upgrading its air traffic system to handle an anticipated increase in passenger traffic, and to ensure
that Cuban airports comply with international security standards;

• Provide technical assistance to promote the maintenance and upgrade of Cuba’s
critical maritime, road and railway systems needs, with an initial emphasis focused
on distributing critical food and medical assistance to rural areas, in an effort to
ensure that the needs of non-urban Cubans are adequately met;

• Assess, with the Cuban Transition Government, the prospects for using intra- island
barges to relieve Cuba’s inefficient land-based transport system for the movement
of humanitarian relief to rural parts of the island;

• Assess the feasibility of creating a regular scheduled ferry service between Florida
and Cuba in order to accommodate the anticipated increase in transport activity,
thus providing an economical means to move people and supplies for humanitarian
purposes;

• Similar attention should be paid to improving distribution of agricultural produce from
agricultural/rural areas to markets and/or processors in a timely manner so as to
allay spoilage of domestically grown produce;

• Conduct an immediate assessment of the adequacy of electric power supply to meet
critical needs and the adequacy and condition of the electricity transmission and
distribution network;

• Provide short-term assistance designed to ensure that the Cuban electrical system
remains viable in advance of more extensive, privately financed overhaul and
modernization;

• Conduct an immediate assessment of fuel needs, refinery capability, and adequacy and
condition of crude oil and product pipelines, and natural gas pipelines and
distribution network;

• Following an initial assessment of existing oil and gas inventory and facilities in
Cuba, helping to ensure that emergency fuel needs are, at a minimum, sufficient to
allow for the distribution of humanitarian assistance throughout the island;

• With respect to communications, there will be an immediate increase in the demand
for international calls, particularly to the United States. U.S. Government agencies,
and the U.S. private sector could provide technical assistance to enhance
information flows, including access to computers and the Internet for lower income
Cubans;

• Encourage U.S. and foreign firms to invest in infrastructure development and mobilize
private sector technical assistance (in the energy, housing, urban planning, and
transportation sectors) through key trade and professional associations;

• Provide advice on le gal, regulatory and financial reform aimed at attracting private
investment in infrastructure;

• In conjunction with the U.S. private sector, provide both emergency restoration and
adequate maintenance to ensure that the existing housing stock is at least adequate
in the short run and that Cubans without access to sufficient housing have at least
temporary shelter until a growing Cuban economy can accommodate new
construction; and

• Offer to provide environmental and urban planning assistance, especia lly at the local
level, both to promote citizen involvement in planning, and also to ensure that the
most critical infrastructure needs are identified and met at the earliest possible
opportunity.

Issues for a Free Cuba

A number of issues critical to the long-term economic success of a free Cuba may
likely need to be addressed once a freely elected, democratic Government is in place.
Three in particular are: the disposition of state-owned enterprises (SOEs); the central role of the Cuban military in the Cuban economy; and property rights. The sensitivity of each of these issues requires that an elected government, enjoying widespread legitimacy with the Cuban people, make the ultimate decisions in these instances. In the interim, the Cuban Transition Government could consider undertaking an inventory of SOEs to determine which ones may be viable for later privatization, imposing budget constraints on non-viable SOEs, enacting measures designed to prevent tunneling or asset stripping in state-owned or military-controlled enterprises, and ensuring that private property rights are respected.

It will be the role of a democratically-elected Government to decide in a fair, humane, and transparent manner how to reconcile the needs of the Cuban people at home and abroad with respect to the critical issue of property rights. In that role, a free Cuban government will need to take into account the need for national reconciliation and the
desire of Cubans living abroad to return to and/or invest in a new Cuba. It should avoid the example of some other transition countries, such as Nicaragua, where the contentious issue of confiscated properties has been allowed to fester for years.
Once a democratic Government is in place, the U.S. Government should state clearly that it would respect the will of the Cuban people as they deal with the problem of confiscated property on the basis of fairness, equity, and national reconciliation. It should also offer technical and monetary assistance to expedite the titling process.

With respect to confiscated property that falls under the Foreign Claims Settlement
Act, the U.S. Government should offer to settle these claims in government-to-government negotiations. The United States should also offer to allow any claimants who wish to seek private settlements to do so.

The international community will be instrumental in assisting a Cuban Transition
Government that guarantees political freedom, economic opportunity and holds free and fair elections. Support from the international community will also help accelerate Cuba’s reintegration into the world economy, bring useful experiences to bear from other countries that have succeeded in transitions, and ease the humanitarian and financial burden on the Cuban Transition Government as it helps the Cuban people regain their sovereignty after decades of repression, abuse, and misrule.

If the Cuban Transition Government requests help, the U.S. Government will work
with international organizations, bilateral donors, and international and existing Cuban
assistance organizations to ensure coordinated and complementary assistance.

Engaging the International Community in Helping Cubans Respond to Critical
Humanitarian and Social Needs

Water and Sanitation

The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and UNICEF will be key
international partners for the water and sanitation sectors, especially in providing clean
water and garbage disposal. The U.S. Go vernment has a long record of working effectively with both institutions and provides budgetary support to PAHO to implement programs throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. Similar programs under PAHO could be supported to aid the Cuba Transition Government secure potable water for the Cuban people.

Health and Nutrition

The international community will be instrumental in assisting the Cuban Transition
Government identify and respond to critical health and nutrition needs. Support and
coordination in these efforts can maintain stability, and support a safe and secure transition process. If critical health and nutrition conditions exist, the U.S. Government could closely coordinate emergency aid with donors and UN organizations such as the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), UNICEF, the World Food Program (WFP), PAHO, NGOs, existing independent Cuban organizations, and other partners, such as the International Red Cross. When identified critical needs are addressed or stable, U.S. Government health and nutrition recovery response efforts can be closely coordinated with PAHO, a close U.S. partner and key international healthcare assistance organization.

PAHO is currently working with other bilateral donors that could be involved in a future
Cuban- led transition.

Food Security

Support to the Cuban Transition Government to ensure food security for the Cuban
people from the international community should be coordinated to prevent duplication of efforts and to ensure Cuban sovereignty remains respected. UN OCHA, WFP, UNICEF, UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and other donors could provide vital food aid, and agricultural or livestock assistance, such as provision of food, veterinary drugs for animals, and locally procured seeds. In addition, the UN WFP school feeding initiatives are integrated into the existing Cuban food system and should be utilized and expanded if necessary. Additionally, existing government run school feeding programs for children of different ages and backgrounds should be utilized where necessary.

Shelter

Should assistance with shelter be requested by the Cuban Transition Government,
the U.S. Government could engage and coordinate efforts with the international community to ensure any shelter or settlement related actions are consistent with the desires of the Cuban Transition Government, Cuban populace and are in accordance with international standards. International and bilateral actors likely to become U.S. Government partners in Cuba transition shelter activities could include the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the International Organization for Migration (IOM), UN OCHA, ICRC, UN Habitat, and UNDP. In addition, regional organizations such as PAHO, and the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) could provide critical shelter assistance.

Education

The United Nations Development Program, UNESCO, the European Union, the OAS, and bilateral donors could offer assistance to the Cuban Transition Government in assisting in the reform of curricula, the re-training of teachers, and the introduction of new textbooks and computer-based learning.

Engaging the International Community in Helping Cubans Get to Free and Fair
Elections The international community will have tremendous assets to put at the disposal of the Cuban Transition Government to work toward elections, and then into the future. The international community can bring to bear international legitimacy, tremendous experience in lessons learned from other nations in transition, and resources. Technical advice and support can be solicited from nations that have experienced similar transitions.

Military Reform

Former communist countries have undergone comprehensive transition periods.
The militaries and security services of those countries also successfully embarked upon varied types of reform as their governments took their first steps as democracies. Cubans can draw from those experiences by asking former communist countries to provide defense and security experts to help as the Cuban military prepares to serve as a professional force under the authority of a democratically-elected civilian government. These countries could also possibly provide the Cubans during transition with logistical support for their aging Soviet-era equipment. Other democratic countries or international organizations may be able to provide similar expertise and logistical support for the military and security services.

Counter-narcotics and Counter-terrorism

Any law enforcement cooperation approved during the transition period could be
expanded to include neighboring countries. Once a democratically elected government is established in Cuba, the U.S. should sponsor Cuba’s membership in regional institutions such as the OAS and work with the UN to have Cuba become a signatory to the UN Convention for Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism.

Engaging the International Community in Helping Cubans Create Market-Based Economic Opportunities

Macroeconomic Stability

The international community can provide support through two channels: (1) the
international financial institutions (IFIs) and; (2) direct donor support. Should it be
requested by the Cuba Transition Government, (after the requirements of the Libertad Act have been met), the U.S. could support having the IMF and World Bank provide essential expertise or assistance during this period in constructing a macroeconomic framework for Cuba and developing credible financing gap estimates for use in mobilizing bilateral donor support. In particular, the international community should consider providing direct budget support to the Cuban Transition Government to maintain essential social services and prevent recourse to inflationary financing during the transition period. External budget support would also help support Cuba’s balance of payments by providing a foreign exchange inflow.

Integration with International Trade/Finance

The international community can support the Cuban transition by removing restrictions on Cuban export products, which would allow Cuban firms to earn foreign exchange and become more competitive. It could also assist Cuba by working constructively with the Cuban Transition Government to reconcile debt claims and standing ready to consider necessary debt relief that would help Cuba achieve a sustainable debt profile.

Small Business Development

When confronting issues involving debt, aid, and trade, to name a few, the Cuban
Transition Government could benefit from working with the international community
during the transition. Experts from former transitional economies could be approached to provide technical assistance and best practices with respect to their experiences in moving from a controlled to a market-based economy. Moreover, the World Bank, IDB, and OAS can be called upon to help create a regulatory and tax framework that would encourage the creation of new, formal sector businesses, as well as provide training and education for Cubans.

Property Rights

The international community and, particularly, former transitional countries have
developed considerable experience in reestablishing titles to property. The lessons of their experie nce could be useful to the Cuban Transition Government as it prepares to deal with these issues in anticipation of a democratically-elected government.

Infrastructure

The international community could play a major role in the reformation of Cuba’s
physical infrastructure, both in terms of providing expertise and badly needed financing.

An international donors conference might be useful to generate short-term assistance so that the most critical infrastructure needs are addressed during the transition. For example, the food distribution network - road, rail, and air - outside of the major urban areas will need to be rapidly improved to ensure that much needed food supplies are transported to rural Cubans. In addition, NGOs have tremendous technical and policy expertise on a wide variety of topics.

At the time of transition in Cuba, Americans will undoubtedly want to redouble
their efforts to help the Cuban people. As part of a broader effort by the international
community, Cubans living abroad around the world can play a crucial role in providing
assistance in all of the areas covered by this report to secure the success of the transition to a Free Cuba. Cubans living abroad could provide much needed resources in the form of information, research and know-how, as well as material support, remittances, loans and investment capital.

As the 1998 “Agreement for Democracy” notes, there is but one Cuban people. The
most tragic legacy of decades of brutal repression is the willful sundering of the Cuban
family by the Castro dictatorship. In contrast, during these long decades, Cubans abroad have time and again welcomed and helped their brothers and sisters who fled the Castro regime’s tyranny.

The dictatorship deliberately distorts the truth and sows fear in order to keep
Cubans divided. Reconciling and reuniting the Cuban family in freedom will be essential to the successful, rapid return of sovereignty to the Cuban people and the nation’s healing.

Some Cubans abroad may want to go back to live out their days in the homeland they love and were forced to leave. Others may wish to rejoin and rebuild Cuba as citizens. Many will simply want to help.

There is a strong and vibrant community of people from Cuba in Europe, the United
States, and throughout the Western Hemisphere. These Cubans were forced to seek refuge abroad by the brutal and repressive policies of the Castro regime. They have been successful in all areas of business, science, academia, and culture, yet their roots and connections to home remain strong.

Cubans abroad are already playing a leading role in providing humanitarian support
to their brothers and sisters on the island and are at the forefront of efforts to promote the development of a civil society movement capable of presenting an alternative to the failed policies of the Castro regime. There is substantial and growing consensus among Cubans, on and off the island, on the need for democracy and on the belief that Cub ans alone have the right to debate and define their democratic future.

The following chapter sets forth the Commission’s recommendations for steps the
U.S. Government should take now to prepare to implement this report to respond rapidly to support a Cuban Transition Government. Similarly, the Commission strongly believes that the Cuban community abroad should re-double their efforts to foster reconciliation on and off the island and to undertake steps now to organize and prepare to assist a Transition Government in Cuba.

The Commission similarly recommends that the U.S. Government make available
sufficient resources, including diplomatic, administrative, and financial, to assist the Cuban community abroad in such preparation. In addition, the U.S. Government should work with the Cuban community to ensure that their support to the transition, and the planning for it, is coordinated in a way that is consistent with overall reconstruction efforts.

Helping Cubans Respond to Critical Humanitarian and Social Needs

Cubans abroad are already at the forefront of efforts to meet the humanitarian needs of the Cuban people - doing from abroad what the Castro regime will not do for its own people at home. Cubans around the world have sacrificed to provide support to the families of victims of political repression, as well as to aid religious and other independent organizations in distributing critical food and medical assistance across the island.

The Castro regime’s neglect of the needs of its people has been so severe for so long, that ameliorating the pent up, unmet needs of the Cuban people will be vital to the success of the Cuban Transition Government in holding elections. Therefore, the Cuban community abroad could play a vital role in providing humanitarian assistance, as well as assisting the U.S. Government and international organizations in similar assistance to the Cuban Transition Government and directly to the Cuban people.

Health and Nutrition

Americans in general and Cuban organizations, in particular, could provide trained
doctors and nurses, who are native Spanish speakers and experienced in disaster relief, to provide immediate support to Cuba’s increasingly fragile and depleted health-care system at the time of transition. Other Cuban organizations abroad have already established networks throughout Cuba of independent Cuban citizens, including doctors and nurses, who serve the communities in which they live. These established grass-roots networks could be strengthened at the time of transition to help meet the health needs of the Cuban people. Cubans abroad could begin now to train in detection of acute health problems that require medical assistance and to deliver preventive health messages to vulnerable groups.

Food Security, Water, and Sanitation

Currently, assistance from Cubans abroad is critical in order to prevent food insecurity and supplement the meager rations provided by the Castro regime. Under the Cuban Transition Government, such assistance from Cubans abroad will be all the more necessary to secure a successful transition. Cubans abroad have expertise in the food-security sector and their knowledge should be collectively and effectively utilized to assist this transition. Similarly, Cubans abroad with technical knowledge in water and sanitation could be a tremendous asset to assist a Transition Cuban Government if assistance is needed.

Education

Keeping a functioning school system through the transition period will very likely be a
high priority for the Cuban Transition Government. As appropriate, transition authorities
could invite Cuban teachers and school administrators from abroad to volunteer to work in support of Cuban teachers as the Cuban Transition Government staffs and manages its primary and secondary school systems during the transition.

Helping Cubans Get to Free and Fair Elections

Both the international community and Cubans abroad in particular will have
tremendous assets to put at the disposal of the Cuban Transition Government to work
quickly to hold free, multiparty elections. Cubans abroad have organizational structures already in place, language abilities and cultural awareness, and a great and enduring personal interest in seeing improvements in Cuba.

Cubans abroad may be witnesses to or victims themselves of human rights
violations. As part of a broader effort to confront past abuses and seek reconciliation, the Cuban Transition Government could draw claims interviewers, including practicing
attorneys, from the Cuban community abroad to act in a supporting role. There are several Cuban-American organizations that currently have information regarding current and past human rights violations on the island. In addition, Cubans abroad will likely wish to donate money to support activities in this area.

The 1998 ‘Agreement for Democracy’ expresses a vision for a new Cuban military
to “propitiate and guarantee the professionalism and political neutrality” of Cuba’s Armed Forces. Cubans abroad with military and defense backgrounds could be invited by the Cuban Transition Government to form teams to train, mentor, and advise Cuban defense and military leadership through the transition.

Helping Cubans Create Market-Based Economic Opportunities

The Cuban Transition Government should consider that Cubans abroad have cons istently demonstrated remarkable commercial, financial, and academic success and could well prove to be critical in supporting an economic transition in Cuba.
Cubans living abroad may be able to help with contributions from trained economists and finance specialists to support the Cuban Transition Government as it seeks to implement market-based macroeconomic policies. They too will likely be a source of much needed capital. Continued or increased remittances will likely be a crucial source of foreign exchange and social support for many households as well as key to revitalizing a liberalized Cuban economy during the transition.

The Cuban community could also prove an asset for the transition by helping to establish new financial institutions or by assisting U.S-based financial institutions to establish new branches or connections in Cuba. Cubans abroad could prove to be an important source of investment during the transition and especially in a Free Cuba.
Cubans abroad are especially well placed to provide support for new Cuban
entrepreneurs during the transition. For example, Cuban-American entities could use their in-depth knowledge of the U.S. market to accelerate the establishment of commercial and economic linkages between the U.S. and Cuba and facilitate the island’s reintegration into the world economy.

Cubans abroad could help revitalize Cuba’s agricultural sector by providing
technical know-how, marketing expertise, and financial resources. They could also provide guidance relating to the export/import of agricultural commodities. They will also likely be an eager market for uniquely Cuban products, wherever they reside.
In addition, the expertise of Cubans abroad could play a key role in the area of
infrastructure. For example, Cubans are justly proud of their architectural heritage. Both Cubans on the island and abroad could work, in partnership with NGOs and relevant U.S. Government agencies, such as the Department of the Interior, to preserve and restore Cuba’s historic heritage, much of which has tragically been neglected under Castro’s rule.

Property Rights

The Commission believes it would be detrimental for a Transition
Government to place impediments on the return of Cubans living overseas.
The return of exiles to Eastern European countries to help their homelands
during their transitions to freedom and free market economic growth
provides a vision of how Cubans abroad can be an essential element in
rebuilding a Free Cuba. In turn, Cubans abroad should understand that
action on confiscated property is best postponed until a fully legitimate,
broadly representative democratic government is elected by the sovereign
people of Cuba.