Intelligence Brief:
Tensions Increase
Between Iran and Saudi Arabia

The latest political developments in the Middle East demonstrate the rising power of Iran. Tehran is involved in three primary conflicts in the Middle East. First, it has extensive ties with the Shi'a movement Hezbollah, which Iran uses as an instrument of leverage in Lebanon and as a tool to pressure Israel. Second, Iran is involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through its support of Hamas. Third, Iran's influence now extends into Iraq due to its relationship with the Iraqi Shi'a community. In addition to these three conflicts, Iran is also pursuing a controversial nuclear research program that could very likely be an attempt to acquire nuclear weapons in order to increase its regional power drastically.

During the past few years, Iran has worked to create alliances with both state and non-state actors who share the common goal of altering the political balance in the Middle East. As a result, Iran has formed alliances with Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and various factions in Iraq. It is incorrect to say that these are "Shi'a alliances." While the Shi'a component plays a large part in this coalition, it is not the core fundament. Hamas, for example, is a Sunni group and Syria is led by an Alawite family with a majority Sunni population. Instead, these actors have joined together due to the common interest of changing the present regional balance of power.

Iran's maneuverings in the Middle East have naturally raised concerns among the Arab states. The Arab countries are the traditional power brokers in the Middle East, and they see Iran as a threat to their regional influence and internal stability. This is particularly true for those countries that have large Shi'a minorities.

Saudi Arabia is especially concerned about Iran's rise. On the surface, official declarations made by both countries foster the perception that their relations are friendly. Seyed Mohammad Hosseini, Iran's ambassador to Saudi Arabia, recently met with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz and said that "there is a suitable atmosphere for promotion of bilateral cooperation in all fields." The crown prince replied by claiming that an expansion of bilateral cooperation could bring benefits to the entire Muslim world. Despite these statements, a larger struggle for power is forming, which was evident during the most recent conflicts in the Middle East.

In Saudi Arabia, many Wahhabi religious leaders warn of the "Persian onslaught" and consider Iran a threat to Saudi interests, internal stability and the Muslim world. Already, the rise of Iran may be causing internal divisions within Saudi Arabia. Some analysts have claimed that the recent resignation of Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States, Prince Turki al-Faisal, was a signal of an internal shift among the ruling family. Turki is considered a moderate when it comes to Iran and was supportive of dialogue with Tehran rather than confrontation. According to this theory, the rest of the ruling family supports the policy of preventing Iranian encroachment.

This theory must be placed into context with the current political conditions in Saudi Arabia. Criticism within the Wahhabi establishment, the internal struggle for political power among the prominent members of the Saud family, the inability of Riyadh to influence regional developments and Iran's growing power and influence are all factors that may undermine Saudi Arabia's ability to form a new foreign policy that will secure its role as one of the primary Middle Eastern powers.

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran are rooted in Islamic history, and the two states have different geopolitical interests.

The Saudi-Wahhabi pact that was formed in the 18th century still represents the foundation of the Saud family's ability to retain power. One principle that this agreement is founded on is anti-Shi'ism since, according to the orthodox Wahhabi ideology, Shi'a religious practices are polytheistic and are at odds with the Islamic principle of tawhid, or monotheism. When Shi'a religious revolutionaries took control of Iran in 1979, it was a turning point for the entire region and for Saudi Arabia especially. The Iranian revolution represented a political model to follow not just for the Shi'a, but for much of the Islamic world; this model was in direct opposition to the Saudi model.

Moreover, the revolutionary rhetoric of the Iranian government was perceived as a threat to the internal stability of Saudi Arabia; Iran, for instance, has in the past called on Muslims to overthrow the Saudi ruling class. An additional factor is that approximately 10-15 percent of Saudi Arabia is Shi'a, and this population is heavily concentrated in the oil-rich Eastern Province inside the kingdom.

Both Saudi Arabia and Iran have, as their main goal, the aim of being the vanguard state of the Islamic world. This shared interest is the primary conceptual framework to understanding the moves and actions of both actors in the international system. Furthermore, Iran is attempting to pursue a strategy that will weaken U.S. influence in the Middle East; this strategy requires eroding Saudi Arabia's regional power since Riyadh is Washington's key regional ally.

Geopolitically, the Saudi-Iranian confrontation is occurring across the Middle East, in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine. In these territories, Tehran and Riyadh are supporting a variety of actors who have different agendas.

In Iraq, Saudi Arabia is offering support to the Sunni Arab minority who are fighting to prevent the rise of the majority Shi'a. At this stage, the support may only be verbal, but there are accusations that Saudi Arabia is planning to step in Iraq more aggressively. Riyadh is concerned that a loss of power for Iraqi Sunnis will mean a loss of Saudi influence in Iraq. As a result, Saudi Arabia has placed pressure on the United States to keep the Iranians out of Iraq. This concern has grown even more pressing since the publication of the Iraq Study Group's report that suggested that Washington should engage Iran and Syria in building a new, more stable regional order based on the stabilization of Iraq.

The recent speech made by U.S. President George W. Bush -- where he failed to suggest that the United States would engage Iran and Syria diplomatically -- likely reassured Saudi Arabia. Indeed, in the recent meeting between Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, al-Faisal declared, "We agree fully with the aims set by the new American strategy toward Iraq. In our view, these aims, if implemented, would resolve the troubles that face Iraq."

In Lebanon, Saudi Arabia supports Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's cabinet and the March 14 coalition, which represent the main "political inheritance" of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri -- who shared deeper relations with Riyadh -- against the rising pressure of Hezbollah's coalition. Moreover, in Lebanon, Riyadh is also moving to weaken Syria. This Saudi strategy is aimed at breaking the Tehran-Damascus axis so that it can neutralize Iran. [See: "Lebanon: A Strained Political Stalemate"]

Finally, in the Palestinian territories, Iran provides support to Hamas, while Saudi Arabia supports Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Again, these alliances reflect the regional struggle.

In conclusion, although official statements appear to be oriented toward positive relations, the geopolitical and ideological struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a reality inside the Middle East. Iran is on its way to becoming a major regional power, and it has joined forces with those entities that are unsatisfied with the present balance of power in the Middle East: Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iraqi Shi'a factions.

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is searching for a new, more incisive strategy to counter the Iranian challenge. Riyadh is allegedly supporting Sunni actors in Iraq and is supporting the enemies of Hezbollah and Hamas. Saudi Arabia has also tried to prevent the United States from engaging Iran diplomatically since such a development would reward Iran by allowing it to achieve U.S. recognition as a permanent player in the region.

Therefore, as Iran continues to pursue increased power in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia will continue its attempts to subvert that power. The clash of power and interests between these two states will likely grow in the coming future.